This paper addresses that the composition of the Fed will be different in 2018 and will likely be moving in a more hawkish direction.
Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
As expected, the FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate at a range of 1.00% to 1.25% at the November meeting, citing “realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation” as the driving forces behind today's decision.
This bulletin, written by Dr. David Kelly, addresses the Federal Open Market Committee meeting announcement on September 17.
This bulletin, written by Dr. David Kelly, addresses the impact that deflationary fears have had on the Fed's decision to postpone rate hikes.
A weekly review of global markets and multi-asset portfolios
The US recovery is now the longest on record. Nobody knows exactly how much longer this expansion will last.
After a volatile December driven by concerns of rising rates, peak economic and earnings growth, and geopolitical tensions, markets have bounced back.