A brief note on the latest price action in equity markets, how business cycles end, and how markets are being left to fend for themselves without central bank intervention for the first time in 20 years.
The US recovery is now the longest on record. Nobody knows exactly how much longer this expansion will last.
Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
UK pension plans concerned about how to invest in a volatile, late cycle environment may want to consider two practices: continue effective rebalancing and don���t postpone further duration hedging in anticipation of rising rates.
Caught our eye: UK pension buy and maintain strategies could bring demand pressure to sterling corporate bonds
In an already tightly held market for sterling corporate bonds, even modest moves by UK pension funds to adopt buy and maintain strategies could create stiff competition for these assets.
In this year���s Holiday Eye on the Market, Michael records a note to his spouse on her father, the 2020 US Presidential election, and what might be the widest ideological divide in 100 years.
Michael looks at the midterms: GOP gains in the Senate, an historic loss in the House given economic and market conditions, and what it means for investors.