We raised the probability of Recession to 55% after virus-induced shocks, oil prices’ collapse and violent market volatility. We are de-risking, adding very high quality duration, while expecting credit markets to cheapen and reserve currencies to do well
For the first time in 20 years, markets will have to survive without support from central banks.
In this year’s Holiday Eye on the Market, Michael records a note to his spouse on her father, the 2020 US Presidential election, and what might be the widest ideological divide in 100 years.
In today’s special issue Eye on the Market, Michael takes a close look at the question of rising committed and unspent capital in private equity, and implications for investors.
In this month’s podcast, Michael looks at the midterms: GOP gains in the Senate, an historic loss in the House given economic and market conditions, and what it means for investors.
A brief note on the latest price action in equity markets, how business cycles end, and how markets are being left to fend for themselves without central bank intervention for the first time in 20 years.
In this Eye on the Market, Michael provides an update on the credit risk of US states based on their unfunded pension and retiree healthcare obligations.