Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
The rise in support for populist parties in the European elections has done nothing for the popularity of European risk assets. Should investors ditch Europe, or does this represent a buying opportunity?
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has led the way with its recent interest rate cut. As we head towards the end of the cycle, other developed market central banks could be expected to follow.
Dovish central banks have the potential to extend the cycle—and therefore the positive environment for credit. Despite the strong performance year to date, we see opportunities for selective investors.
An already accommodative European Central Bank (ECB) surprised markets with an even more dovish stance at its 7 March meeting—positive news for European credit.
The 2019 rally is underpinned by progress on the fundamental issues that rattled markets at the back end of last year. But given the strength of the rebound, how much longer can it continue?
Central banks across the globe recalibrated their policy stance in the first week of May, making it clear that inflation is not the sole driver of their decisions. What does this suggest for the future direction of monetary policy?
Despite the recent resurgence of growth worries, we maintain the view we expressed in February that Chinese growth will accelerate this year. This should be supportive for fixed income risk assets, especially if higher growth feeds through to other region
The potential political, macro and credit risks insurers may want to address in 2019.
The trade dispute between the US and China shows few signs of resolution. Why are global tariffs rising, which economies are most vulnerable and how can investors position themselves for this more challenging environment?”