We expect another positive year for emerging market debt in 2020, with base case expectations of about 8% returns for emerging market hard currency, and 11% for emerging market local currency.
The coronavirus outbreak has led to a massive global demand shock. A plunge in economic activity, probably larger than a typical recession, has likely begun.
We raised the probability of Recession to 55% after virus-induced shocks, oil prices’ collapse and violent market volatility. We are de-risking, adding very high quality duration, while expecting credit markets to cheapen and reserve currencies to do well
Global markets and multi-asset portfolios
Vincent Juvyns and Alex Dryden discuss economic growth in the eurozone and the potential impacts of the slowdown in China and other emerging markets.
This bulletin, written by Dr. David Kelly, addresses the Federal Open Market Committee meeting announcement on September 17.
This bulletin, written by Dr. David Kelly, addresses the impact that deflationary fears have had on the Fed's decision to postpone rate hikes.
A weekly review of global markets and multi-asset portfolios
Emerging market equity: If you wait for certainty, you miss opportunity