Trade rhetoric is dominating news flow, weighing on risk assets. What could be the implications for US growth and inflation, and how is the outlook reflected in valuations?
A relatively benign G20 summit and expectations for easier financial conditions ahead have boosted demand for emerging market debt. However, areas of value can still be found.
Mounting political tensions in Europe have been negative for risk assets in October, particularly equities. European credit has so far escaped relatively unscathed, but how long can this resilience persist?
The US recovery is now the longest on record. Nobody knows exactly how much longer this expansion will last.
With Mexico the latest target of Washington’s tariff tactics, trade tensions are clearly escalating, not subsiding. Could this be the final straw to push the Federal Reserve to cut rates?
European high yield has started the year in good spirits, supported by attractive valuations, robust credit quality and positive technicals. But with global growth momentum slowing, will the credit party continue?
Global markets and multi-asset portfolios
The year started with global macro data and quantitative valuations moving in opposite directions. Can this trend continue, or will one side give way?
At the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) press conference, Governor Carney noted that businesses are taking a very cautious approach right now because of the uncertainty around the outcome of the ongoing Brexit negotiations.