Given our view that the global economy is just as likely to contract as expand over the next three-to-six months, is it now time to position fixed income portfolios more defensively?
UK wages grew at the fastest pace since 2008 in July, with the three-month average growth rate for wages including bonuses reaching 4% year on year.
A slew of fundamental developments over the week suggests the macroeconomic backdrop continues to deteriorate, and yet bond markets are still generating strong returns across not only safe havens but also risk assets. Can this momentum persist into Sept.
The ECB’s forceful stimulus package surprised investors with an open-ended approach to a relaunched QE—asset purchases of €20 billion per month will continue until inflation starts to rise.
Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
US Economy Health Check chart book
A new trade announcement from the Trump administration has comprehensively overshadowed the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since the financial crisis. What impact will the most recent round of tariffs have on the economy and on markets?
The theory of negative interest rates is straightforward, but the practice is not. What do negative rates mean for savers?
Credit markets have enjoyed a strong march upwards, supported by robust technicals and a broadly positive fundamental backdrop. With issuance set to pick up, could now be the time to take some chips off the table?
With inflation stubbornly weak, the European Central Bank (ECB) is now expected to act. What would more monetary stimulus mean for investors?