The impact on Europe of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union (EU) remains unclear, and other landmark events are now looming large on the political horizon. Italy’s major Constitutional referendum, scheduled for 4 December,
Long-term Capital Market Assumptions 2017 Theme-Credit cycles
Explores how institutional investors should reconfigure portfolio allocations/strategies in a world of low returns.
Last week, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 1.75%–2.00%, citing global developments and muted inflation pressures.
Given our view that the global economy is just as likely to contract as expand over the next three-to-six months, is it now time to position fixed income portfolios more defensively?
In tandem with the escalations and setbacks in the trade war since midyear, policy uncertainty has risen significantly above its long-term average. This policy uncertainty could ratchet the economic outlook in either direction.
A slew of fundamental developments over the week suggests the macroeconomic backdrop continues to deteriorate, and yet bond markets are still generating strong returns across not only safe havens but also risk assets. Can this momentum persist into Sept.
Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
US Economy Health Check chart book