While no deal is not the most likely scenario in our view, the risks are rising. The UK outlook is binary. A Brexit deal could see sterling bounce to 1.40 against the dollar, but no deal on 31 October could see a further slump to 1.10.
The current U.S. earnings growth downcycle has been largely consistent with the recent deterioration in macroeconomic momentum.
This weekly update provides a snapshot of changes in the economy and markets and their implications for investors.
Updated each quarter, the Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic trends and statistics.
Key findings from the Multi-Asset Solutions Strategy Summit
Given our view that the global economy is just as likely to contract as expand over the next three-to-six months, is it now time to position fixed income portfolios more defensively?
Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
US Economy Health Check chart book
Themes and implications from the most recent Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Investment Quarterly
The US recovery is now the longest on record. Nobody knows exactly how much longer this expansion will last.