US Economy Health Check chart book
Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
This weekly update provides a snapshot of changes in the economy and markets and their implications for investors.
Just as headwinds from trade policy were beginning to dissipate, the outbreak of COVID-19 has pushed the global economy into recession.
The US economy is now entering recession. Initial jobless claims – a measure of the number of new filings to receive unemployment benefits – rose to 3.283 million for the week ending 21 March.
We expect another positive year for emerging market debt in 2020, with base case expectations of about 8% returns for emerging market hard currency, and 11% for emerging market local currency.
Emerging Market Equity Views : Favorable global cycle and USD outlooks create a positive environment
While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding
The trade dispute between the US and China shows few signs of resolution. Why are global tariffs rising, which economies are most vulnerable and how can investors position themselves for this more challenging environment?”
A summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.