Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
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After a relatively quiet summer, volatility spiked in October as investors worried about rising rates, peak economic and earnings growth and geopolitical tensions.
The key political, macro and credit risks that insurers may want to address in 2019.
We expect continued solid returns for emerging market debt (EMD) over the next six to 12 months, driven by healthy fundamentals, a supportive net issuance level and attractive valuations.
Equity markets experienced welcome respite in January, after a torrid end to 2018.
A summary of the factors driving global markets over the last quarter.
Market volatility returned in October. The S&P 500 moved up or down by more than 1% in a single day on ten occasions last month – two more times than in the whole of 2017.