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We emerged with a cautious near-term view from our latest quarterly strategy meeting in early September. In our base case scenario, the global economy is expected to narrowly avoid recession and continue to grow, albeit much more slowly.
We believe the Brexit negotiations will conclude with a relatively “soft” Brexit. But, as current media headlines show, there are still a number of compromises that need to be made on both sides to seal the deal.
The performance of the US dollar significantly diverged from relative rate spreads.
Trade policy is of first-order importance in a more connected world, and markets have been reacting nervously to U.S. trade disputes.
What investors should consider
Market sentiment towards the Chinese currency has shifted significantly