Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
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A summary of the factors driving global markets over the last quarter.
Market volatility returned in October. The S&P 500 moved up or down by more than 1% in a single day on ten occasions last month – two more times than in the whole of 2017.
For the first time in 20 years, markets will have to survive without support from central banks.
Michael looks at the midterms: GOP gains in the Senate, an historic loss in the House given economic and market conditions, and what it means for investors.
A brief note on the latest price action in equity markets, how business cycles end, and how markets are being left to fend for themselves without central bank intervention for the first time in 20 years.