Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
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The COVID-19 outbreak has pushed the global economy into recession and equities likely have further to fall. We are overweight cash and duration and modestly underweight equity and credit. We expect to stay nimble in our relative value positions.
While Europe faces some of the macro challenges that have plagued Japan for the last 30 years, investors shouldn’t oversimplify and extrapolate into a dismal outlook for European stocks.
Brexit uncertainty is not over. But that wasn’t the only thing holding back UK stocks, and investors could be tempted back to the market.
We emerged with a cautious near-term view from our latest quarterly strategy meeting in early September. In our base case scenario, the global economy is expected to narrowly avoid recession and continue to grow, albeit much more slowly.
In our first post of the “Insurers and COVID-19” series, we analyzes the public equity portfolios of P&C insurers during this turbulent time.
This quarter has not been an easy one for most investors.
We raised the probability of Recession to 55% after virus-induced shocks, oil prices’ collapse and violent market volatility. We are de-risking, adding very high quality duration, while expecting credit markets to cheapen and reserve currencies to do well