Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
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We believe the Brexit negotiations will conclude with a relatively “soft” Brexit. But, as current media headlines show, there are still a number of compromises that need to be made on both sides to seal the deal.
The Fed halted tightening and propelled equities to their fastest recovery ever following a bear market.
For the first time in 20 years, markets will have to survive without support from central banks.
In this year’s Holiday Eye on the Market, Michael records a note to his spouse on her father, the 2020 US Presidential election, and what might be the widest ideological divide in 100 years.
In this month’s podcast, Michael looks at the midterms: GOP gains in the Senate, an historic loss in the House given economic and market conditions, and what it means for investors.