Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
The Guide to the Markets is a pioneer as the industry's leading resource for timely information on the market and economy
We believe the Brexit negotiations will conclude with a relatively “soft” Brexit. But, as current media headlines show, there are still a number of compromises that need to be made on both sides to seal the deal.
The key political, macro and credit risks that insurers may want to address in 2019.
The Fed halted tightening and propelled equities to their fastest recovery ever following a bear market.
In this year’s Holiday Eye on the Market, Michael records a note to his spouse on her father, the 2020 US Presidential election, and what might be the widest ideological divide in 100 years.
In today’s special issue Eye on the Market, Michael takes a close look at the question of rising committed and unspent capital in private equity, and implications for investors.
In this Eye on the Market, Michael provides an update on the credit risk of US states based on their unfunded pension and retiree healthcare obligations.
Michael recaps the self-inflicted wounds of the Section 301 tariffs, and recaps his meetings in DC with a group of Congressmen to discuss debt, deficits and financial markets.