Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
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We emerged with a cautious near-term view from our latest quarterly strategy meeting in early September. In our base case scenario, the global economy is expected to narrowly avoid recession and continue to grow, albeit much more slowly.
We believe the Brexit negotiations will conclude with a relatively “soft” Brexit. But, as current media headlines show, there are still a number of compromises that need to be made on both sides to seal the deal.
The Fed halted tightening and propelled equities to their fastest recovery ever following a bear market.
For the first time in 20 years, markets will have to survive without support from central banks.
In today’s special issue Eye on the Market, Michael takes a close look at the question of rising committed and unspent capital in private equity, and implications for investors.
In this month’s podcast, Michael looks at the midterms: GOP gains in the Senate, an historic loss in the House given economic and market conditions, and what it means for investors.
In this Eye on the Market, Michael provides an update on the credit risk of US states based on their unfunded pension and retiree healthcare obligations.