Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
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We emerged with a cautious near-term view from our latest quarterly strategy meeting in early September. In our base case scenario, the global economy is expected to narrowly avoid recession and continue to grow, albeit much more slowly.
We believe the Brexit negotiations will conclude with a relatively “soft” Brexit. But, as current media headlines show, there are still a number of compromises that need to be made on both sides to seal the deal.
The Fed halted tightening and propelled equities to their fastest recovery ever following a bear market.
In this year’s Holiday Eye on the Market, Michael records a note to his spouse on her father, the 2020 US Presidential election, and what might be the widest ideological divide in 100 years.
In today’s special issue Eye on the Market, Michael takes a close look at the question of rising committed and unspent capital in private equity, and implications for investors.