Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
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Brexit uncertainty is not over. But that wasn’t the only thing holding back UK stocks, and investors could be tempted back to the market.
While Europe faces some of the macro challenges that have plagued Japan for the last 30 years, investors shouldn’t oversimplify and extrapolate into a dismal outlook for European stocks.
Markets, economy, stocks, growth, global, fixed income, international, asset classes
We emerged with a cautious near-term view from our latest quarterly strategy meeting in early September. In our base case scenario, the global economy is expected to narrowly avoid recession and continue to grow, albeit much more slowly.
A summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
Equity markets experienced welcome respite in January, after a torrid end to 2018.