Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
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After a relatively quiet summer, volatility spiked in October as investors worried about rising rates, peak economic and earnings growth and geopolitical tensions.
In today’s special issue Eye on the Market, Michael takes a close look at the question of rising committed and unspent capital in private equity, and implications for investors.
We expect continued solid returns for emerging market debt (EMD) over the next six to 12 months, driven by healthy fundamentals, a supportive net issuance level and attractive valuations.
A brief note on the latest price action in equity markets, how business cycles end, and how markets are being left to fend for themselves without central bank intervention for the first time in 20 years.