We raised the probability of Recession to 55% after virus-induced shocks, oil prices’ collapse and violent market volatility. We are de-risking, adding very high quality duration, while expecting credit markets to cheapen and reserve currencies to do well
Updated each quarter, this piece explores key themes from our Guide to the Markets, providing timely economic and investment insights.
Includes discussion of Europe, the US, Japan, emerging markets, and infrastructure
Learn about the important topics covered in the Outlook and their potential impact on broader markets. Michael Cembalest touches on topics including: the global banking system, oil markets, the credit risk of US states and credit market liquidity.
2011 estimates and the thinking behind the numbers. Executive summary
Analysis of Japan's recent nation election. Positive market reaction also addressed.
Bond yields remain at or near historic lows around the world, leading to a substantial increase in the value of pension plan liabilities.
Analysis of the Bank of Japan's aggressive new monetary policies designed to tame inflation down to 2%
What will higher interest rates mean for real estate? In the short term, the impact on real estate capitalization rates is likely to be minimal. It’s important to separate the impact of higher interest rates into short- and long-term effects.
Infrastructure roundtable: In-depth discussion in European Pensions magazine, involving executives from seven investment firms and consultancies.