US Economy Health Check chart book
Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
The Bank of England (BoE) held its base rate of interest unchanged at 0.5% at its meeting today.
This weekly update provides a snapshot of changes in the economy and markets and their implications for investors.
As widely anticipated, Emmanuel Macron’s La Republique en Marche party has won an absolute majority in the French National Assembly after the second round of legislative elections on Sunday 18 June.
Just as headwinds from trade policy were beginning to dissipate, the outbreak of COVID-19 has pushed the global economy into recession.
We raised the probability of Recession to 55% after virus-induced shocks, oil prices’ collapse and violent market volatility. We are de-risking, adding very high quality duration, while expecting credit markets to cheapen and reserve currencies to do well
The US economy is now entering recession. Initial jobless claims – a measure of the number of new filings to receive unemployment benefits – rose to 3.283 million for the week ending 21 March.
Like summers, economic expansions do not last forever. The US recovery is now the second longest on record. There is nothing to suggest it will end in the near future, so the broad prognosis for risk assets remains good. But we know that—like weather fore
We expect another positive year for emerging market debt in 2020, with base case expectations of about 8% returns for emerging market hard currency, and 11% for emerging market local currency.