The Bank of England (BoE) held its base rate of interest unchanged at 0.5% at its meeting today.
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This weekly update provides a snapshot of changes in the economy and markets and their implications for investors.
We emerged with a cautious near-term view from our latest quarterly strategy meeting in early September. In our base case scenario, the global economy is expected to narrowly avoid recession and continue to grow, albeit much more slowly.
As widely anticipated, Emmanuel Macron’s La Republique en Marche party has won an absolute majority in the French National Assembly after the second round of legislative elections on Sunday 18 June.
We expect another positive year for emerging market debt in 2020, with base case expectations of about 8% returns for emerging market hard currency, and 11% for emerging market local currency.
We believe the Brexit negotiations will conclude with a relatively “soft” Brexit. But, as current media headlines show, there are still a number of compromises that need to be made on both sides to seal the deal.
The key political, macro and credit risks that insurers may want to address in 2019.
Themes and implications from the most recent Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Investment Quarterly