We raised the probability of Recession to 55% after virus-induced shocks, oil prices’ collapse and violent market volatility. We are de-risking, adding very high quality duration, while expecting credit markets to cheapen and reserve currencies to do well
We expect another positive year for emerging market debt in 2020, with base case expectations of about 8% returns for emerging market hard currency, and 11% for emerging market local currency.
Vincent Juvyns and Alex Dryden discuss economic growth in the eurozone and the potential impacts of the slowdown in China and other emerging markets.
Eye on the Market: The Verdict
Includes discussion of Europe, the US, Japan, emerging markets, and infrastructure
Full 62-page report with analysis of all asset classes.
What to expect in the next 15 years.
Analysis of Japan's recent nation election. Positive market reaction also addressed.
Analysis of the Bank of Japan's aggressive new monetary policies designed to tame inflation down to 2%
Expected returns and correlations of asset classes.