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FACTOR VIEWS 4Q 2018

The factors that we favor were generally mixed in a quarter in which equity markets recovered and volatility subsided—despite a more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed), escalating trade tensions and a rise in geopolitical risk.


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GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION VIEWS 1Q 2019

Slowing economic momentum and tightening policy lead us to de-risk our multi-asset portfolios, reducing stock-bond to a small underweight. Neutral on credit and modestly overweight duration, we upgrade cash (specifically USD cash) to overweight.


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GLOBAL FIXED INCOME VIEWS 1Q 2019

We cut the chances of Above Trend Growth to 50% amid political and trade uncertainties, and likely quantitative tightening and two additional rate hikes. Favored sectors: Short duration securitized credit, high yield credit, local emerging market debt.


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GLOBAL EQUITY VIEWS 1Q 2019

After a year of weak returns, we see an above-average level of opportunity across areas of global stock markets. By region our U.S. investors are the most optimistic as 2019 begins. Trade tensions and tariffs pose the main risk to equity markets.


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