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FACTOR VIEWS 3Q 2019

Factor performance was negative, on balance. Equity momentum gained, but event-driven factors were mixed and whipsawing commodities markets challenged macro factors. Looking ahead, we are most bullish about the prospects for the value factor.


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GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION VIEWS 3Q 2019

Trade disputes are raising the downside risks to our forecast for slightly subtrend growth. We retain our mild underweight to stocks and prefer to take risk in carry assets like credit. Reflecting valuations, we downgrade duration to neutral.


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GLOBAL FIXED INCOME VIEWS 4Q 2019

We doubled Recession probability to 40%, lowering Above Trend Growth from 25% to 10% and Sub Trend Growth from 45% to 40%. We favor: 10- and 30-yr Treasuries, short- and intermediate-term investment grade corporates and selected securitized instruments.


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GLOBAL EQUITY VIEWS 3Q 2019

After a strong first half, we are a little cautious, but see no reason to move aggressively away from equity exposure. Many defensive stocks are richly priced, we see opportunity in out-of-favor value, and we continue to monitor trade tensions.


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