While no deal is not the most likely scenario in our view, the risks are rising. The UK outlook is binary. A Brexit deal could see sterling bounce to 1.40 against the dollar, but no deal on 31 October could see a further slump to 1.10.
A slew of fundamental developments over the week suggests the macroeconomic backdrop continues to deteriorate, and yet bond markets are still generating strong returns across not only safe havens but also risk assets. Can this momentum persist into Sept.
The food fight between the President and the Fed Chair could result in too much easing, and the expansion of valuations beyond sustainable levels. The other food fight: leveraged loan issuers vs buyers. Issuers are winning this fight hands down due.
Michael discusses how he should have taken Trump at his word on tariffs, and the impact of the widening trade war on global growth and equity markets as proposed tariffs approach pre-war levels.
The Fed halted tightening and propelled equities to their fastest recovery ever following a bear market.
Michael discusses this year���s Eye on the Market Energy paper. Topics include the unattainable objectives of the Green New Deal, an overview of the world���s de-carbonization challenges, Germany���s energy transition and Trump���s War on Science.
For the first time in 20 years, markets will have to survive without support from central banks.