Trade policy is of first-order importance in a more connected world, and markets have been reacting nervously to U.S. trade disputes.
Pascal’s Wager argues that belief makes more sense than disbelief when the worst outcome is a total loss.
While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding