Trade disputes are raising the downside risks to our forecast for slightly subtrend growth. We retain our mild underweight to stocks and prefer to take risk in carry assets like credit. Reflecting valuations, we downgrade duration to neutral.
The global economy has slowed, and trade disputes are raising the downside risks to our forecast for slightly subtrend growth. That said, while remaining wary of the signals coming from the bond market, we don’t see the trade shock as truly recessionary f
While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding, and expected returns are above average.
It was another rollercoaster ride for equity markets but this time ending on a high note, with the S&P 500 Index delivering a thrilling 13.6% return in the first quarter, the best start to a year since 1998.
‘Nine things to think about in endgame investing’, ‘Can UK pension funds survive the short term to thrive in the long term?’, ‘Prescriptions for late-cycle portfolio construction’ and ‘Three ways exposure to multi-asset credit can help DB plans’.
Many UK defined benefit (DB) pension funds are well along on their de-risking journey. What lies ahead now is relatively unexplored territory. Here we set out things to consider in building a runoff investment strategy.