Welcome to the Summer 2019 edition of Pension Pulse. This publication from our Pension Solutions and Advisory Group provides UK pension funds with timely updates on market trends, funding levels and the latest industry and product developments.
Pension funds don’t face the many constraints that make buy and maintain strategies so well-suited to insurers, and can make use of these freedoms when designing portfolios to meet the liability-aware investment needs of pension funds.
UK pension plans concerned about how to invest in a volatile, late cycle environment may want to consider two practices: continue effective rebalancing and don’t postpone further duration hedging in anticipation of rising rates.
Trade disputes are raising the downside risks to our forecast for slightly subtrend growth. We retain our mild underweight to stocks and prefer to take risk in carry assets like credit. Reflecting valuations, we downgrade duration to neutral.
While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding, and expected returns are above average.