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    Building resilient liquidity strategies

    Managing frequent bouts of market volatility is crucial for corporate treasurers and institutional investors in order to identify the best investment opportunities through segmenting short-term investments and leveraging solutions across the full ultra-short spectrum.
    • Liquidity Insights
    • Market Insights
    • Fixed Income Insights
    Liquidity Insights

    Proceed with caution: Fed keeps rates on hold

    The FOMC unanimously decided to make no changes to the 5.25%-5.50% federal funds target range. Interest on reserve balances (IORB) and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) rate were also left unchanged at 5.40% and 5.30%, respectively

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    Time to step out

    The rise in interest rates over the last two years has been dramatic. UK interest rates have risen at the sharpest pace since the 1980s, while rates in Europe have rapidly increased from negative territory to the highest level since the inception of the euro. Evidently, this sharp rise in rates is good news for corporate treasurers.

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    BoE hits pause on hikes for now

    At its September 2023 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained Bank Rate at 5.25% in a split 5-4 decision, while unanimously deciding to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases by £100 billion over the next twelve months.

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    ECB raises rates once more, taking the deposit rate to a record high

    At its monetary policy meeting on 14 September 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) tightened monetary policy further, increasing key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps).

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    China banks navigate property downturn

    For the past three decades, the property sector has been a key driver of Chinese economic growth. While the recent property downturn in China has created challenges for the banks’ operating environment, the banks’ credit profiles likely remain resilient in the future.

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    PBoC RRR cut – A strong dovish policy signal

    On 14 September 2023, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a broad based 25bps Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) rate cut. The timing and the shortness of the notice period was unexpected.

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    RBA: Unchanged at Governor Lowe's last call

    At Governor Lowe’s last monetary policy meeting as head of the RBA, the bank decided to leave the Overnight Cash Rate unchanged at 4.10%. This was widely expected by economists following slightly softer economic data and a recent decline in monthly inflation.

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    PBoC cuts MLF again as economic data continues to disappoint

    On 15 August 2023, the People’s Bank of China cut its 1-year Medium Term Lending Facility by 0.15% to 2.50% and its 7-day open market operation repo rate by 10bps to 1.80%.

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    On the Fitch Downgrade

    On August 1, 2023 Fitch downgraded the United States of America’s long-term credit rating one notch, from AAA to AA+.

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    BoE slows the pace of hikes with rates rising to 5.25%

    The Bank of England (BoE) opted to raise Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25%, as a recent cooling in both inflation and the economic outlook allowed it to moderate the magnitude of its hike from the 50bps delivered in June.

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    Reserve Bank of Australia – Pausing on optimistic forecasts

    At its monetary policy meeting on 1 August 2023, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the Overnight Cash Rate unchanged for a second month. This follows a cumulative 400bps of rate hikes over the previous fifteen months, which has taken base rates to a decade high of 4.10%.

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    ECB raises rates once more, but future decisions look finely balanced

    At its monetary policy meeting on 27 July 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) tightened monetary policy further, increasing key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps).

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    Patient and resolute

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to raise interest rates 25bps. The new target range is 5.25%-5.50%—the highest level in more than 22 years—yet we may not have reached the peak.

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    European Commission report finds MMFs remained resilient during recent market stresses

    On 20 July 2023, the European Commission published its report to the Council and the European Parliament on the adequacy of the European Union Money Market Fund Regulation.

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    New money market fund rules from the US SEC

    On 12 July 2023, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced amendments to its rules governing money market funds (MMFs). The new rules will lead to changes for US domiciled MMFs, as well as specific changes impacting institutional (prime and tax exempt) MMFs, and government, Treasury and retail MMFs.

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    Reserve Bank of Australia – A pause to assess

    At its monetary policy meeting on the 4th of July, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the overnight cash rate unchanged at 4.10%. This represents the second pause in the central bank’s current hiking cycle.

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    BoE switches back up a gear as rates hit 5.00%

    The Bank of England (BoE) raised Bank Rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.00% as recent upside in data indicated more persistent inflationary pressures and justified a 13th consecutive increase.

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    Don’t call the Fed’s action a pause (or a skip)

    The FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.00%-5.25%. The interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) rate were also left unchanged at 5.15% and 5.05%, respectively.

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    ECB hikes for an eighth time

    At its 15 June 2023 monetary policy meeting, the ECB increased all three key interest rates by 25bps, bringing the refinancing rate to 4.00%, the marginal lending facility to 4.25% and the deposit facility rate to 3.50%.

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    PBoC reinforces its dovish stance

    In a widely anticipated move, the Peoples Bank of China cut its 1-year Medium-Term Lending Facility by 10bps to 2.65% on the 15th of June. The action follows a 7-day Repo cut and a Standing Lending Facility rate cut last week and highlights the central bank’s decisively dovish pivot as the authorities seek to stabilize China’s faltering economic recovery.

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    PBoC’s small, yet clear dovish signal

    At its 13th June Open Market Operation, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut its 7-day Reverse Repo Rate by 10bps to 1.90%. The repo rate is a key tool used by the central bank to ensure adequate market liquidity, this also represents the first repo rate cut since August 2022.

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    The RBA surprises as inflation trumps growth

    At its 6 of June Monetary Policy Meeting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to a new cycle high of 4.10%. The rate hike surprised investors, who were expecting additional rate hikes following the RBA’s hawkish pivot at its May Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting but remained uncertain as to the exact timing of any RBA action.

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    What happens when Hong Kong’s Aggregate Balance hits zero?

    Since February this year, the Hong Kong Dollar (HK$) has hit the weak side of its convertibility versus the US Dollar (US$) on multiple occasions. This has necessitated ongoing foreign exchange intervention by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) to support the HK$.

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    BoE hike in May, recession gone away

    The Bank of England (BoE) raised the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50% in a split 7-2 vote as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) believes persistent inflationary pressures and a tight labour market justified a twelfth consecutive increase.

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    ECB slows hikes, but has “more ground to cover”

    At its 4th of May monetary policy meeting, the ECB increased all three key interest rates by 25bps, bringing the refinancing rate to 3.75%, the marginal lending facility to 4.00% and the deposit facility rate to 3.25%.

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    The U.S. debt ceiling: Latest thoughts and updates

    The U.S. federal government reached its debt limit - Commonly called the “debt ceiling”, the debt limit is the maximum amount of debt that the U.S. Department of the Treasury can issue to the public or to other federal agencies.

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    The RBA’s narrowing path to a soft landing

    At its monetary policy meeting on May 3, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the market by hiking its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%. Justifying its abrupt volte-face, the central bank said “inflation… is still too high and it will be some time yet before it is back in the target range”.

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    MAS pauses as growth outlook dims

    Following its semi-annual monetary policy meeting on April 14, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left its prevailing monetary policy unchanged – including the slope, width and center-point of the band – unchanged. This represents the central bank’s first pause since it began tightening its policy in October 2021.

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    RBA - On hold for now

    On 4 April, the Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the Overnight Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%. This represents the first pause by a major central bank and follows a cumulative 350bps of hikes over the past ten consecutive meetings.

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    The Fed’s balancing act

    The FOMC maintained its firm stance against inflation by raising interest rates 25bps to 4.75%-5.00%, despite heightened financial stability risk. Interest on reserve balances (IORB) and the overnight reverse repo rate (RRP) were also increased by equivalent amounts to 4.9% and 4.8%, respectively.

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    Bank of England keeping options on the table

    At its March 2023 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Bank Rate by 25bps to 4.25%, the highest level since November 2008. The increase was largely expected by the market despite recent global financial market volatility.

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    PBOC RRR cut – Front Loading Policy Support

    On Friday 17th March, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a broad-based 25bps Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) rate cut, releasing additional liquidity into the banking system and reducing commercial bank funding costs.

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    ECB sticks with 50bps hike, despite market turmoil

    The European Central Bank (ECB) acted on February’s forward guidance by increasing key interest rates by 50 basis points (bps), despite current market volatility.

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    Reserve Bank of Australia - A pivot to less hawkish

    At its monetary policy meeting on the 7th of March, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to an eleven-year high of 3.60%. The rate hike was widely anticipated following last month’s hawkish pivot.

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    Hong Kong Interest Rates – rational confusion

    The HKMA intervened to defend the peg and purchased HKD 19bn on February 14-15. This has reduced its aggregate balance to HKD 77bn, the lowest level in almost three years.

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    RBA – No pause yet

    At its first monetary policy meeting of 2023, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.35%. The move represents the ninth consecutive hike in the current cycle, and the accompanying statement was more hawkish than expected.

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    ECB stays the course towards inflation reduction

    The European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 50 basis points, in line with expectations to a 15-year high of 3.00%. In the accompanying statement and subsequent press conference, the ECB maintained its hawkish tone, signalled an intention to increase rates by a further 50 bps in March.

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    UK turns a corner but risks remain large

    The Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 50 basis points to 4.00% in a split 7-2 vote as a tight labour market and continued domestic wage and price pressures justified a tenth consecutive increase.

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    On The U.S. Debt Ceiling

    To prevent the United States from defaulting on its payment obligations, the Treasury will now be forced to utilize its cash balances and take steps towards “extraordinary measures.”

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    The Bank of England “strikes” again

    At its 14 December monetary policy meeting, the Bank of England voted to raise the Bank Rate by 50bps to 3.50%, bringing borrowing costs to their highest level since 2008.

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    ECB reduces the rate hike but increases the rhetoric

    At its last monetary policy meeting of 2022, the ECB increased all key interest rates by 50 bps, bringing the refinancing rate to 2.50%, the marginal lending facility to 2.75% and the deposit facility rate to 2.00%. This rate hike was a step down from the 75-bps increases of the previous two meetings.

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    Downshift, but still hiking

    The FOMC unanimously decided to downshift to a smaller but, in the words of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, “still historically large increase” of 50 bps.

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    RBA – debating hikes and lags

    At their final monetary policy meeting of 2022, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to a decade high of 3.10%.

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    PBoC cuts RRR – A renewed dovish signal

    On Friday 25 November, the People’s Bank of China announced a 25bps Reserve Requirement Ratio cut. In the accompanying statement, the PBoC confirmed the RRR cut was part of a package of measures to support economic growth.

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    Stepping out for the Fed pivot

    After a series of jumbo rate hikes, it appears most investors are anticipating a pivot from the US Federal Reserve. However, the elevated level of inflation and resilience of the economy mean that rate cuts are unlikely for some time.

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    Bank of England joins the 75bps club, but don’t expect a repeat!

    At its 3 November monetary policy meeting, the BoE finally joined the 75bps rate hike club, increasing the base rate to 3.00%, the highest level in almost 14 years. Over the past 11 months, the central bank has pushed the base rate up by 290bps – the fastest pace on record – driven by a combination of elevated inflation, a tight employment market and the potential for this to lead to more persistent inflation, and the recent fiscal support for household energy bills.

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    Fed - The lag effect

    The FOMC showed once again that it is prepared to take interest rates into sufficiently restrictive territory in order to clamp down on inflation. For the fourth consecutive meeting, it unanimously decided to increase its Federal Funds target rate by 75bps to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. Interest on reserve balances (IORB) and the overnight RRP were also increased by equivalent amounts to 3.80% and 3.90%, respectively.

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    ECB repeats larger hike, but uncertainty lies ahead

    At its 27 October policy meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council voted to raise key eurozone interest rates by 75bps, in-line with market expectations. The deposit rate increased to 1.50%, the marginal lending facility to 2.25% and the main refinancing rate to 2.00%. The central bank’s rationale for a third large rate hike was the recognition that inflation remains “far too high”.

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    RBA committed to a slower cadence

    At its monetary policy meeting on 1 November, the RBA raised the Overnight Cash Rate by 25bps to 2.85%. This was the seventh hike in the current cycle, taking base rates to a nine-year high.

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    Monetary Authority of Singapore - Leaning against price pressures

    At its semi-annual monetary policy meeting on 14 October, the MAS re-centered the mid-point of the S$NEER up to its prevailing level – approximately a 2% increase – while keeping the slope and width of the policy band unchanged.

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    A divided Bank of England delivers 50bps as rates rise to 2.25%

    The Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 50 basis points to 2.25% in a split 5-3-1 vote as the tight labour market, higher wages and higher domestic inflation justified a seventh consecutive hike.

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    PBOC attempts to jump-start the economy

    On August 15, the People’s Bank of China announced a MLF rate cut of 10bps to 2.75%. Although small in size, the rate cut confirms the PBOC’s desire to jump-start the economy and sends an important monetary policy signal with significant implications for interest rates and RMB cash investors.

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    Hiking forcefully into a recession

    In a near-consensus 8-1 vote, the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the Bank Rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 1.75%, the highest level in over 13 years as domestic cost and price pressures intensify.

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    When does unusually large become usual?

    On July 27, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its Federal Funds Rate target range by 75 basis points (bps) to 2.25% - 2.50%. There were no dissenters.

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    The Monetary Authority of Singapore – an expected surprise of S$NEER hike

    On July 14, the MAS announced it would tighten monetary policy by re-centering the S$NEER policy band upwards. While the timing of the MAS statement was a surprise, the market was expecting further policy actions.

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    The Reserve Bank of Australia: moving ahead of the curve?

    On June 7, the RBA surprised the market by raising the Overnight Cash Rate by 50bps to 0.85%. This is the second rate hike in the current cycle, following a 25bps move in early May. The size of the rate hike also affirms the RBA’s desire to get ahead of the inflation fighting curve.

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    The Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish turn

    The RBA hiked its Overnight Cash Rate for the first time in over a decade at its 3rd May monetary policy meeting. The hike was more hawkish than expected.

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    Reserve Bank of Australia: From patience to pragmatism

    At its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday 5th of April, the RBA left base rates unchanged at a record low of 0.1% whilst acknowledged that “inflation has picked up and a further increase is expected” in the accompanying comments. Its hawkish tilt and giving a clear hint to potential rate rises in the coming months.

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    Fed lift-off

    On 15-16 March, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held its two-day meeting and raised its federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.25%-0.5%, with one dissenting member calling for a 50bps increase.

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    Bank of England see-saw back to a dovish stance

    The Bank of England (BoE) raised the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.75% in a split 8-1 vote with the dissenting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member calling for no change on 17 March 2022.

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    The Reserve Bank of Australia: Stressing patience, confirming plausibility

    At their first monetary policy meeting of 2022, the RBA acknowledged that the economy “remains resilient” despite the recent Omicron outbreak which has not derailed the recovery.

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    A surprise, pre-emptive policy hike by the Monetary Authority of Singapore

    Singapore’s de-facto central bank hiked the slope of the S$NEER policy band, increasing the pace of appreciation. The unexpected hike was triggered by the strong inflation uptrend in recent days as well as a reassessment of Singapore’s growth and inflation expectations in 2022 by the MAS.

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    A “close call” on the BOE’s laboured path to higher rates

    The Bank of England (BoE) defied market expectations for a rate hike as they left the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.1% and maintained total target of asset purchases at GBP 895 billion. The deferred hike means no immediate respite to ultra-low sterling yields, although further interest rate volatility is likely; investors should consider maintaining a disciplined approach to cash investment and segmentation.

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    RBA Tentative Tapering

    The RBA announced its first tentative step towards tapering and eventual policy normalization.

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    Market Insights

    Beyond the pause: What happens after peak rates?

    A likely pause in the US hiking cycle is now approaching. See how the peak in rates has impacted equity and bond markets in the past.

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    Guide to the Markets

    The J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear charts and graphs.

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    Sustainability and portfolio returns

    Read about the complex issues at the heart of measuring the financial impact of ESG investing.

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    India’s appeal to investors

    This paper, written by Tai Hui and Tilmann Galler, discusses the outlook for India equities and the investment implications.

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    European stocks deserve more attention

    Europe has made structural improvements and we think investors should sit up and take notice.

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    What happens if the US breaches the debt ceiling?

    Global Market Strategists Meera Pandit and Max McKechnie explain the implications of a potential failure of US debt ceiling negotiations.

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    The changing shape of Europe’s energy transition

    Accelerating efforts to achieve a green and secure energy supply are having an impact on the economy and markets.

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    The advantage of high dividend stocks in a stagflationary environment

    Explore how dividend paying stocks can help build portfolio resilience against the prospects of high inflation and recession.

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    Answers to the key questions raised by the recent stress in the banking sector

    Amid ongoing market volatility, the Market Insights team answers the key questions raised by the recent stress in the US and European banking sectors.

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    Green bonds: Is doing good compatible with doing well in fixed income?

    Green bonds are attractive instruments for working towards positive environmental benefits. Find out why demand for green bonds from investors is expected to continue to grow.

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    Marking the bottom of the Chinese economic cycle

    This paper discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy with an update on latest GDP number and the COVID-19 situation.

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    The impact of higher interest rates on housing and consumers

    Learn whether rising interest rates could cause a housing market crash and what it means for consumers.

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    Market Updates

    Read our weekly commentaries to get market insights that may help inform your investment strategy.

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    Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2023: Too good to be true

    With markets and economies both proving resilient so far this year, our global economic outlook highlights the investment opportunities and risks ahead. Explore now.

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    Achieving net zero: The path to a carbon-neutral world

    Governments are aligning behind the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, but dramatic changes to the global economy will be required to get us there. Learn more about the policies and innovations that could pave the way to a carbon-neutral world.

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    A new supercycle – the clean tech transition and implications for global commodities

    A forced and rapid energy transition is under way. Discover what impact this will have on commodity markets and clean energy investment opportunities.

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    Eye on the Market

    Explore Eye on the Market, timely commentary that offers views on the economy, markets, and investment portfolios by Michael Cembalest.

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    Fixed Income Insights

    Time to revisit emerging market external debt?

    Emerging market external debt has been out of favour with investors throughout 2023. We explore whether yields of 8.6% may finally tempt them to get back in.

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    FOMC Statement: September 2023

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find out latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. rates team.

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    Global Fixed Income Blog

    Fixed Income Perspectives

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    Solvency Capital Requirement

    Using rating transition matrices to formulate a view on expected solvency-related capital charges in corporate bond portfolios

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    Don’t you…forget about bonds

    Despite short-term volatility, bond markets still offer compelling opportunity

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    FOMC Statement: July 2023

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find out latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. rates team.

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    Are we there yet?

    The Fed is driving the bus toward higher for longer, while the market continues to probe from the back seat. We explore three paths that rates can take from here.

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    China: Should we be worried about local government implicit debt?

    Recently, China’s local government made headlines on the implicit debt issue, but we believe the issue is manageable and that systemic risk is unlikely.

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    Leveraging rating transition matrices

    We analyze forward-looking rating transition matrices in US Corporate Credit markets and lay out how they can be informative when making investment decisions.

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    Peering over the ratings cliff

    We focus on the information contained in the rating transition probabilities within the BBB/BBB- and BB/BB+ rating cohorts with a view to identifying potential fallen angels and rising stars.

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    Student loan moratorium: A lot of moving parts

    The expiry of the student loan payment moratorium represents a meaningful shock to certain borrowers’ finances. We sought to identify exactly which consumers are most impacted and quantify the impact to their finances.

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    Cash Trap

    Using history as a road map should lead investors to embrace high quality fixed income rather than shying away from it in favor of the cash trap. This is especially true as the end of the Fed’s hiking cycle is on the horizon and yield curves are highly inverted.

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    FOMC Statement: June 2023

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find out latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. rates team.

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    The unintended consequences of tuition discounting

    The rate by which U.S. colleges and universities discount student tuition continued to rise in the 2022-2023 academic year, contributing to our negative view on the higher education sector.

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    A framework for analyzing CLO managers

    As the largest holder of US leveraged Loans, Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) are in focus given the current macroeconomic context. We introduce a quantitative and qualitative framework for analyzing and differentiating CLO managers we invest in.

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    China Real Estate: Still very relevant on Earth

    China's property market, once galactic in scale, has shrunk considerably. Will it follow Japan’s path and enter a lost decade? We think not, but volatility will persist.

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    China: More broad-based funding cost decrease

    In this blog, we explore why Chinese authorities are guiding down household investment return and why this guidance could anchor CGB yields in the medium term.

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    A framework for prediciting composite bond rating changes

    This blog presents a framework for constructing rating transition scores to predict composite bond rating events. The approach capitalises on momentum in bond ratings, published rating agency credit watch flags and the replication of index composite rating methodologies.

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    FOMC Statement: May 2023

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find out latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. rates team.

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    China: Growth Perception Gap

    After the strong China Q1 GDP reading, we noted a view difference between onshore and offshore markets. In this Blog, we highlight the potential reasons for why the onshore market holds a more cautious view than the offshore market.

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    What if America sneezed and no-one cared?

    The Federal Reserve are currently priced to cut rates over the next two years with little feedthrough to the other major central banks. This blog investigates the divergent trends in the US and the rest of developed markets and tackles the question of whether the Fed can pause and subsequently cut rates without dragging the rest of the world with them.

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    It’s Playoff Season for the Fed

    The stakes are raised as the Fed approaches the end of the hiking cycle. Making the case that the time to pause is now.

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    China NPC March Meeting Recap

    In the blog, we provide the key takeaways from NPC meetings on the Government Work Report, personnel change, and institutional reform.

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    FOMC Statement: March 2023

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find out latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. rates team.

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    March Market Madness

    With volatility surging again, we look at the recent performance of fixed income sectors and discuss the potential drivers going forward. Can Agency MBS go from a bracket buster to a Cinderella story?

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    Assessing credit trends in ABS auto deals

    The US consumer remains dynamic as the economic landscape rapidly evolves. Read about our latest consumer insights powered by alternative data, which help demystify the drivers behind recent ABS performance.

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    ESG Engagement with Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX)

    An important part of our long-term investment strategy is actively engaging with issuers on financially material ESG issues. Read about my recent engagement meeting with PEMEX.

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    Revisiting the case for dollar weakness

    The factors that led to US dollar appreciation in 2022 are inflecting. We examine what this changing trend means for the future of currency markets.

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    FOMC Statement: February 2023

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find out latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. rates team.

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    Back to the Transitory Future

    What if inflation was transitory all along? Exploring the growing case that the Fed has made sufficient progress and tightened enough.

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    Goodbye 2022… and good riddance

    2022 was a rocky year for bond investors, but there is cause for cautious optimism in 2023.

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    State of the Union

    With the U.S. Federal Reserve continuing to tighten and recession risks rising, we assess the financial state of U.S. debtors from state and local finances to corporates and consumers. We conclude that governments, corporations, and consumers are well-positioned in 2023.

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    Five Realistic Surprise Predictions for 2023

    Every December, we try to come up with predictions for the New Year. We believe these predictions have at least a one in three probability of materializing – making them realistic while not necessarily our base case. We also judge that they are not currently priced in the markets – making them surprises relative to investor positioning.

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    EM Corporates Outlook for 2023

    Resilient fundamentals defined 2022. What should we expect in 2023?

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    Finding Value in Fallen Angels

    The global economy continues to face macroeconomic headwinds and growing recession risks from tightening financial conditions. In this blog, we analyze a relative value approach to fallen angels.

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    FOMC Statement: December 2022

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find out latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. rates team.

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    Thoughts on Market “Liquidity”

    Volatility throughout 2022 has sharpened the focus of commentators and participants alike on market liquidity. In this blog, we start to unpack this evasive concept with an eye towards US Treasuries.

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    The Fed’s Control: Part II

    The Fed’s balance sheet journey has only just begun. They have successfully increased the cost of money but are only just beginning to reduce the supply.

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    China: Takeaways from the 20th Party Congress

    The Communist Party of China (CPC) concluded its 20th National Congress on the 22nd of October, marking the end of an old term and the start of a new term.

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    FOMC Statement: November 2022

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find out latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. rates team.

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    Night of the Living Fed

    The Fed’s view that inflation would be transitory has turned into a horror movie. We flag several risks that suggest the Fed might now be making more progress than it thinks.

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    Outlining the condition for a peak in the dollar

    Our quantitative indicators continue to signal the dollar is overvalued. We believe that the prospects of valuation based strategies are becoming more attractive for investors with a sufficiently long time horizon.

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    Corporate Fundamentals: Weathering the impending storm

    While fundamentals will likely weaken as monetary conditions tighten, we continue to believe that our investment universe of investment-grade and high-yield credits are well-positioned to weather the storm.

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    PM Corner: In conversation with James McNerny

    Portfolio Manager James McNerny discusses the Fed hiking cycle and identifies opportunities on the short end of the curve

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    5 Realistic Surprise Predictions for 2022

    What does 2022 have in store for fixed income markets? Read on as Bob Michele & Kelsey Berro shares 5 realistic predictions for the New Year.

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    FOMC Statement: September 2021

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities (GFICC) U.S. Rates team.

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    American made

    Bob Michele, the global Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities group, discusses the extraordinary monetary and fiscal response to COVID-19 across the world.

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    Multiple reasons for multi-family

    The agency CMBS market offers an attractive way for fixed income investors to access one of the more resilient sectors of the commercial real estate market.

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    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

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    2020 Annual Bond Market Awards

    Back by popular demand, we present Bob Michele's annual "Bond Market Awards" - including central banker of the year, villain in a leading role, rookie of the year, MVP, bond of the year and more! 

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    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

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    'Blue ripple' and the USD outlook

    The ‘Blue wave’ the market had prepared for now appears to be more of a ‘Blue ripple’ and currency markets are adjusting to a different political outlook.

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    Add extra guacamole for a dollar!

    Emerging Markets Local Currency debt emerged as one of our best ideas at our most recent investment quarterly meeting. This isn't just about the US Dollar; we like what we see in local EM.

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    Is there green in the graying baby boomers? Why we like non-profit tax-exempt senior living bonds

    At our recent IQ meeting, we concluded municipal high yield was one of our best ideas. In this piece we take a deep dive into one of the more opportunistic sectors in the tax-exempt market.

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    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

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    Emerging Markets: Don’t Fight the Central Banks

    The opportunity cost of not investing in EM debt remains very high. Most importantly the same applies for the rest of fixed income: don’t fight the central banks.

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    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    A Road to Recovery

    In response to Europe’s biggest growth shock in a generation the EU council agreed on the outline of the “Recovery Fund” to help cushion the economic fallout from the pandemic.

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    A new era for alpha generation in local emerging markets?

    The global savings glut has been driving asset price valuations for the last decade or so. Emerging Markets and investors need to prepare for a potential new world.

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    Will a “Blue Wave” carry UBI onto the shore?

    The potential outcomes of the U.S. elections could usher in more than just higher taxes.

    Read more

    CLOs: not the CDOs of yore

    Recent headlines have compared today’s CLO market to the subprime mortgage market of old; we do not believe CLOs pose system risks to the financial system.

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    China’s Interest Rate Pivot

    While China’s post-Covid-19 economic data is showing signs of normalization, the government’s focus on stability will have significant implications for monetary policy and interest rates

    Read more

    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    Emerging Markets: From Beta to Value

    Investors fled emerging markets ahead of the pandemic, but are now slowly returning. We expect a gradual economic recovery to continue to support returns, and seek to rotate into select beta.

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    Confirmation, Conflict, Hope

    Top of mind insights from our Global CIO

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    The United States of COVID

    Now that the US has entered the beginning stages of the reopening process, we discuss the speed in which the US economy can rebound with a focus on systemically important States and politics.

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    COVID-19 era: addressing top investor questions

    COVID-19 uncertainties abound. With the help of the team, Andrew tries to tease out a macro view through answering vexing questions.

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    Treasury’s 20-20 vision

    Next week the Treasury will re-introduce 20-year bond issuance as they look to manage increasing borrowing needs and capitalize on growing demand for long bonds by LDI investors.

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    Bios

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    A longer road back for corporates

    Liquidity provision doesn’t remedy a weak outlook for corporate fundamentals. Thoughtful sector and security selection is needed to navigate the minefield ahead.

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    Monetary financing – crossing the line?

    We expect bond markets to remain sanguine about the shift to unprecedented monetary financing until there are signs that the economy is emerging from the downturn.

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    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    Is the Bond Market Dead?

    The bond market isn’t dead, but to deliver a reasonable return we need to balance the safety of co-investment alongside central banks with the opportunistic hunt for higher yield and return.

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    Challenges in EM during current pandemic

    EM valuations reflect much of the outlook ahead, but the uncertain COVID-19 impact remains a downside risk. As such, we remain defensive, favoring EM investment-grade credit.

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    Where will the cash go?

    With the appearance of COVID-19 and the extreme market sell-off in risky assets, in the space of 3 months investors have aggressively been buying money market funds.

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    The PBoC – Rate Cuts and Policy Clarification

    The Peoples Bank of China recent policy actions help address the concerns that its policy response was lagging the aggressive actions taken by other central banks.

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    Emerging Markets Debt – Time to Buy?

    The last four weeks have created deep value and at current levels EM IG offers an attractive alternative with less credit risk and the prospect of double-digit returns.

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    What is next for US Inflation?

    Given the dramatic shift in the global economic outlook as a result of COVID-19, US inflation will slow but the market may be too pessimistic.

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    Thou Shalt Fund….and Shalt Not Fail

    As the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act emerged from on high in the Senate, it became clear to me what this meant for fixed income investors.

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    High Yield Valuations in the Age of Coronavirus

    As all asset classes have repriced over the past few weeks, the Global High Yield Team believes looking at leveraged credit valuations in the context of historical bear markets can provide actionable insights for investors.

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    The week the bond market broke, and the week everyone put It back together

    The bond market was broken, but policy makers and market leaders worked around the globe to fix the system.

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    Getting the market back on its feet

    Market functionality needs to be restored no matter how anyone feels about the methods it may take to get there. If the current market conditions persist, the consequences may be severe.

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    Waiting it out. . .

    Volatility across markets has created considerable anxiety amongst investors trying to gauge the effectiveness of global response from healthcare, monetary and fiscal policy. Given how varied the responses are, this may be an unsolvable riddle over the near term

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    Emerging Market Investment Grade: Market Well Held

    With markets down across the globe, we are writing to tell you that EMD has not delivered a homogenous drawdown. Instead, there has been a resilience in our arena that is worthy of comment.

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    If you give a mouse a cookie…

    The Fed’s emergency cut significantly increased the odds of returning to the zero-lower bound in 2020.

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    Shock, crisis, rinse, repeat

    We’ve seen Fed rate cuts before, during the 2008 crisis—this one removes a question mark for the economy.  Now small businesses also need support.

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    Make the Fed Cut Again

    While no one knows for certain what 2020 or 2022 will bring to the White House and the Fed, staffing changes and increasing political pressure within the Fed is a near-certainty.

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    Fixed income investing in 2020

    After a challenging 2018, fixed income investors caught a break in 2019 with the U.S. Barclays Aggregate returning 8.7%, its best year since 2002.

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    Singapore Dollar – no longer defying gravity

    The Singapore Dollar is no longer defying gravity – we discuss why and the implications for cash investors.

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    Key macro risks for bond portfolios in 2020

    We assess the key macro risks investors should be thinking about in 2020 and their potential impact on global bond portfolios.

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    The ECB's strategy review: Actions speak louder than words

    With the ECB quickly running out of tools and inflation still some way from their current target, the market will be keen to hear what comes next.

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    The current evolution of the mortgage market

    Bubble alert? Not so fast, mortgage credit availability has slowly emerged from extinction. Read our insights on the current evolution of the mortgage market.

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    Taxable munis in 2020: Opportunity knocks

    The taxable municipal market is expected to see a spike in supply and more diversified issuance. We explore the potential opportunity for investors.

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    5 realistic surprise predictions for 2020

    Our team puts forth predictions around fixed income market returns, Treasury yields, gold and the U.S. presidential elections.

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    2019 annual bond market awards

    We present our bond market awards for 2019 - including central banker of the year, villain in a leading role, rookie of the year, MVP, lifetime achievement award and more.

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    PBOC: small move, strong signal

    We look at why the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) made its recent and notable dovish pivot and its implications for investors

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    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed’s announcement, find our latest market views from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Team (GFICC).

    Read more

    Emerging markets debt: stronger than it’s ever been

    In our view, emerging markets debt deserves the positive attention it has been receiving in an era of central bank interference and global hunt for yield.

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    Fun in funding land

    We think the Fed’s actions have assuaged some concerns about short-term funding but risks still remain.

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    The forest and the trees

    When constantly watching financial markets and following the 24-7 news flow, it can be easy to get caught up in the trees and miss the forest.

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    Chinese property - a paradigm shift

    Chinese property is one of the largest sectors in the Asia high yield bond universe, and is often considered as one of the “safer” sectors by investors.

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    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Following the Fed's recent announcement to cut rates, we discuss our views on the meeting and our outlook on monetary policy.

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    Pension and insurance strategies: when traditional measures fail to capture the risk for income focused portfolios

    Clients look to income focused strategies to meet their objectives, but traditional metrics of risk may not be appropriate for income focused strategies.

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    Emerging markets and the negative yield conundrum for fixed income investors

    Record low bond yields pose a major problem for fixed income investors. We explore why taking active FX risk can be a solution for investors.

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    RBA: uncharted territory for unattainable goals

    The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its overnight rate to a new record low - leaving the RBA in uncharted territory.

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    Negative rates – how low can you go?

    It seems the global financial system has gone crazy as rates continue to fall further negative. We review why and the impacts it has on the market.

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    Silver bullets are not magnetic

    I explain why a whatever-it-takes policy approach is not a silver bullet and will eventually lead to pain.

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    No longer “why” but “how”: the case for emerging markets debt matures

    In a world where real yield is increasingly scarce, it is our view, emerging markets debt deserves a larger role in a global fixed income portfolio.

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    Watch the lag: thoughts on core CPI (part 2 – an update)

    We analyze which economic indicators the Fed should pay attention to and which ones are false alarms.

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    Passing the baton to fiscal

    ECB governors are agreement that it's time for fiscal policy to now take the baton from monetary policy as the main instrument to stimulate the economy.

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    Trading the thrill of the ECB chase

    We review July's ECB monetary policy and determine the impacts on the ECB and the Eurozone.

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    What does the bond market know that the stock market doesn’t?

    Why is the stock market at near all-time highs, while the bond market is signaling recession?

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    “Technically” speaking the US high yield market has strong price support

    Even as markets price in recession risk, we look at how the technicals in the high yield market is as important as solid fundamentals in the short term.

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    EM central banks – the case for an asymmetrical beta to the fed

    EM Central Banks have a relatively high beta to Fed policy rates. We believe EM Central Banks will deliver a significant cutting cycle across most countries.

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    FOMC statement & potential impact on fixed income

    Looking beyond the disappointing press conference, we believe the FOMC is employing a proactive risk management approach as opposed to a reactionary policy.

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    10 year US treasury yields are headed to 0%?

    The central banks must take the lead, and it must start this month. They must bring front end real yields so low, so fast that the yield curve steepens.

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    Summertime state of play for the central banks

    If central bankers can engineer another dovish course correction which prolongs the global economic expansion in real terms, it will be a job well done. 

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    Narrative whipsaw

    We see many different narratives driving markets, and we address the impact of a binary change in the short-term outlook for growth and financial asset prices.

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    Introducing ‘GAMP’ – generally accepted monetary principles

    What seemed like unconventional and bizarre monetary policies in the immediate post-crisis world, have come to look generally accepted, if not pedestrian.

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    Moore rate cuts or a world of Cain?

    President Trump has been presented with the opportunity to make a profound impact on the Federal Reserve.

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    MMT: short-term gain vs. long-term pain

    Why is everyone is talking about Modern Monetary Theory?

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    Talking about ending QT is not the same as doing it

    The market got a dose of what no-QT feels like, but now in March, the reality of $50 billion per month of liquidity withdrawal is likely to return.

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    Near-term views and the three phases endgame

    With the benefit of hindsight, we can summarize the past year in markets with a pretty tight fit to almost two complete cycles through the Three Phases.

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    5 realistic surprise predictions for 2019

    Our team puts forth predictions around the yield curve, US high yield returns, 10-year Treasuries, the US dollar and oil.

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    2018 annual bond market awards

    We highlight our awards—including corporate bond of the year, currency of the year, comeback player of the year, unsung hero, MVP and more.

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    The dovish course correction (ish)

    According to the roadmap I’ve described all year, a dovish lean into tight financial conditions should be cause for a significant relief rally in risk assets.

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    Off message

    We recap macro and policy evolution, and then shoehorn it into the Three Phases Model to get a near-term outlook for further market performance.

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    Potential pathways for higher yields

    Intuition, math, the increase in Treasury supply from the budget deficit and Quantitative Tightening, it feels weird that Treasury yields aren’t higher.

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    Three phases update and assessment

    A lot has happened since my last dispatch on the Three Phases Model. I’ll detail where I think we are in its evolution.

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    The case for leveraged loans

    We take a in-depth look at the leverage loan market.

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    IOER – does the latest fed move have any practical implications for cash investors?

    The Fed’s interest on excess reserves (IOER) shot to prominence following an unprecedented adjustment by the central bank. We explore its impact on investors.

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    More sea shells please: assessing early signs of liquidity withdrawal

    We look at three charts which are seemingly unrelated, but we think each represent early signs of the impact of US monetary tightening.

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    The miraculous japanese labour force

    Japan suffers from labor shortages and the working population is no longer growing. So how is it possible the economy just added the most number of jobs on record?

    Read more

    Examining offshore dollar liquidity in light of the three phases model

    We focused on global central banks’ withdrawal of liquidity as the primary market driver. Now, we look more closely at USD liquidity from an offshore perspective.

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    Approaching the first intermission

    Realized volatility in all asset prices should continue to be elevated as markets adjust in fits and starts to the new reality of liquidity removal.

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    China’s $3 trillion bond index inclusion

    We review how the inclusion of China onshore government bonds in the Global Aggregate Index impacts the market.

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    The shadow productivity escape hatch

    When an economy reaches full employment, productivity growth must then also occur to lift potential, otherwise inflation pressure builds. Where are we now?

    Read more

    Key risk scenarios for bond portfolios in 2018

    We outline the key risk scenarios for bond portfolios in 2018.

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    Policy reversal: a play in three acts

    Making market prognostications is always a tricky business, but we frame the debate in 3 phases, with Phase 1 an uncomfortable time.

    Read more

    2017 annual bond market awards

    From bond of the year to most valuable player to comeback player of the year, we've presented our bond market awards for 2017.

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    Stock, flow, impulse: an update

    We still believe the flow of central bank balance sheet expansion is still the dominant force driving markets, both risk markets as well as interest rates.

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    Quantitative tightening: many moving parts

    Here we take a closer look the Fed’s balance sheet activity to show the interactions, and take a view on how QT unfolds.

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    What is R-star and is it rising?

    Here we discuss what R-star or the real neutral rate of interest is and how it affects central banks and their ability to determine and explain policy.

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    A “structural reform” for the kids

    We revisit a different structural reform proposal and expand on it with three key charts from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

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    Stock, flow or impulse?

    Neither economic data nor the chaotic news cycle is the dominant force driving stock prices right now, it’s the flow of quantitative easing.

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    An inadvertent reprieve

    The Fed has tightened policy rates four times now, and financial conditions have gotten incrementally easier/looser each time. How should we interpret this?

    Read more

    Natural disintegration

    We examine how anticipated economic momentum over the near term is likely necessary to sustain the narrative, in effect to avoid the decay.

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    Printing versus burning

    My optimism at the opportunity presented to the new President has given way to more skepticism. Here are the positives and negatives.

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    The epicenter of optimism

    We share a short note to highlight one fascinating chart that in our view encapsulates the macro narrative thematically all by itself.

    Read more

    Alchemy is difficult and dangerous

    The consequences of the Border Tax seem skewed toward a mixture of known and unknown negatives, with what looks to me like only dubious potential benefits.

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    Honeymoon to hangover

    My optimism at the opportunity presented to the new President has given way to more skepticism. Here are the positives and negatives.

    Read more

    Big border tax, part 2

    Part II of the Border Tax gives an update on the deep policy discussion brewing at the intersection of corporate tax reform and US trade policy.

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    Big border tax

    There is a deep policy discussion brewing at the intersection of corporate tax reform and US trade policy. Here are two important points.

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    What are financial conditions and why do they matter?

    There are generally four components to financial conditions analysis. Learn how each in isolation influences the economy in different ways.

    Read more

    2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

    The 26th annual edition explores how the legacy of the pandemic – limited economic scarring but enduring policy choices – will affect the next cycle. Despite low return expectations in public markets, we think investors can find ample risk premia to harvest if they are prepared to look beyond traditional asset classes.

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