Like summers, economic expansions do not last forever. The US recovery is now the second longest on record. There is nothing to suggest it will end in the near future, so the broad prognosis for risk assets remains good. But we know that—like weather fore
In this paper, Rupert Brindley discusses why the concept of the forward rate of interest is central to fixed income investing, and how it informs long-term forecasting processes.
Market recap for the week, with consymer confidence & equities chart, economic data calendar, & market statistics
Paper examining market reaction to economic improvement, & the likely outcomes when central banks unwind the aggressive monetary policies
Analysis of Italy's highly volatile political environment, and the possible implications for the markets
Article discussing how low growth, low yield environments are good for equity income investing.
Mario Draghi reacted to the increased economic risks to the economic outlook with a bold package of monetary easing measures.
While no deal is not the most likely scenario in our view, the risks are rising. The UK outlook is binary. A Brexit deal could see sterling bounce to 1.40 against the dollar, but no deal on 31 October could see a further slump to 1.10.
LTCMA 2019 illustration managing illiquidity risk across public and private markets.
Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.