Credit markets have enjoyed a strong march upwards, supported by robust technicals and a broadly positive fundamental backdrop. With issuance set to pick up, could now be the time to take some chips off the table?
Dovish central banks have the potential to extend the cycle—and therefore the positive environment for credit. Despite the strong performance year to date, we see opportunities for selective investors.
As one central bank after the other announces cuts to interest rates, we continue to believe that buying duration will be worthwhile for investors, even with yields close to record lows.
Investment grade and high yield credit in emerging markets have delivered divergent performance over the summer. Could this trend reverse, or is investor caution warranted in the high yield space?
Global - Currency Thoughts - PDF
We may not be outright US dollar bulls, but fundamentals and quantitative valuation factors both suggest that investors are currently too negative on the currency.
Another week of dovish central bank rhetoric suggests that rate cuts are a near certainty in the US and Europe. Will easier monetary policy fulfil its objective of preventing recession, and what will be the implications for currency markets?
Core bond yields have pushed higher since the end of October. Is the move warranted by a shift in the fundamental picture, and where could we go from here?
An improved macroeconomic backdrop continues to support hard currency emerging market (EM) debt, which has outperformed local currency EM debt this year. However, is there now room for EM currencies to take off?
Weakness in the global economy has been almost entirely driven by the manufacturing sector. With recent data showing tentative signs of a recovery, what could be the implications for bond markets?