Eye on the Market is a timely commentary that offers views on the economy, markets, and investment portfolios. The author, Michael Cembalest, is the Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
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In this month’s podcast, Michael looks at the midterms: GOP gains in the Senate, an historic loss in the House given economic and market conditions, and what it means for investors.
How business cycles end: implications for investors
A brief note on the latest price action in equity markets, how business cycles end, and how markets are being left to fend for themselves without central bank intervention for the first time in 20 years.
2018 has been another year of American exceptionalism in equity markets, with our enthusiasm tempered by the tech-dependence of equity returns, high valuations, fading stimulus and constitutional/tariff risks.
The song remains the same
Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market, The song remains the same. Michael reviews current market dynamics, walks through four investment strategies that have performed well over multiple cycles as this one enters its latter stages, and shares his thoughts on the Helsinki summit.
The room where it happens
Michael Cembalest comments on the self-inflicted wounds of the Section 301 tariffs, a recap of a meeting he had with a group of Congressmen and Senators to discuss debt, deficits, and more.
Michael Cembalest discusses the underappreciated risks of Chinese retaliation against US companies doing business in China, and how a full-blown trade war and military conflict are far from inevitable.
The Arc and the Covenants
Michael Cembalest takes a unique look at US states, cities, and counties using his signature comprehensive debt ratio. While municipalities have time to address underfunded obligations, some face difficult trade-offs.
The Late Show
Michael Cembalest considers why despite strong US earnings growth and global expansion, equity markets remain flattish in 2018.