In this year’s Holiday Eye on the Market, Michael records a note to his spouse on her father, the 2020 US Presidential election, and what might be the widest ideological divide in 100 years.
2018 has been another year of American exceptionalism in equity markets.
For the first time in 20 years, markets will have to survive without support from central banks.
Where can investors find sustainable sources of return?
Michael discusses how short covering, rather than real money, has driven the fastest recovery on record following a bear market, and looks ahead at slowing earnings growth.
2018 has been another year of American exceptionalism in equity markets, with our enthusiasm tempered by the tech-dependence of equity returns, high valuations, fading stimulus and constitutional/tariff risks.
The food fight between the President and the Fed Chair could result in too much easing, and the expansion of valuations beyond sustainable levels. The other food fight: leveraged loan issuers vs buyers. Issuers are winning this fight hands down due.
A summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
A brief note on the latest price action in equity markets, how business cycles end, and how markets are being left to fend for themselves without central bank intervention for the first time in 20 years.
Emerging market equities are inherently volatile. But investors shouldn’t be deterred. If investors have a long time horizon, the emerging markets are expected to pay returns well in excess of developed market equities.