Michael Cembalest analyzes the performance of over 6,700 domestic and international active equity managers, and discusses the challenges they face outperforming at a time of markets distorted by quantitative easing.
Eye on the Market: The Verdict
Despite attractive valuations, emerging market equities have underperformed. Things are improving, but a headwind looms: monetary policy
The food fight between the President and the Fed Chair could result in too much easing, and the expansion of valuations beyond sustainable levels. The other food fight: leveraged loan issuers vs buyers. Issuers are winning this fight hands down due.
Michael discusses how short covering, rather than real money, has driven the fastest recovery on record following a bear market, and looks ahead at slowing earnings growth.
Chart of JPM's long-term capital market return assumptions. Deleveraging will depress growth while risk assets should offer decent returns
Executive summary of JPM's long-term capital market return assumptions for 2013
Full report detailing JPM's long-term capital market return assumptions for 2013
This full report is a comprehensive and detailed analysis of our 10-to 15 year asset class forecasts. US version.
We emerged with a cautious near-term view from our latest quarterly strategy meeting in early September. In our base case scenario, the global economy is expected to narrowly avoid recession and continue to grow, albeit much more slowly.