Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
US Economy Health Check chart book
UK wages grew at the fastest pace since 2008 in July, with the three-month average growth rate for wages including bonuses reaching 4% year on year.
Given our view that the global economy is just as likely to contract as expand over the next three-to-six months, is it now time to position fixed income portfolios more defensively?
Incorporating Environmental, Social & Governance