Just as headwinds from trade policy were beginning to dissipate, the outbreak of COVID-19 has pushed the global economy into recession.
We raised the probability of Recession to 55% after virus-induced shocks, oil prices’ collapse and violent market volatility. We are de-risking, adding very high quality duration, while expecting credit markets to cheapen and reserve currencies to do well
After broad-based equity gains in 2019, prices are more demanding. We see solid but unspectacular profits growth this year. Technology winners march on and we think financials, selected industrials, Europe and emerging markets offer relative appeal.
There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can't.
Themes from the quarterly Quantitative Beta Research Summit
A Coronavirus update: severity, consequences and implications for investors
There are some difficult days ahead as quarantines and lockdowns grow. I want to share something with you from John Stuart Mill as we head into the unknown.
Our 2020 Global Alternatives Outlook (PDF) has ideas to help you navigate this shifting investment landscape in the upcoming 12- to 18-months.
Answers to questions on the coronavirus, US megacap stocks, the cost of Democratic Healthcare plans, the Iowa caucus and the problem with the student loan system.