The coronavirus outbreak has led to a massive global demand shock. A plunge in economic activity, probably larger than a typical recession, has likely begun.
We raised the probability of Recession to 55% after virus-induced shocks, oil prices’ collapse and violent market volatility. We are de-risking, adding very high quality duration, while expecting credit markets to cheapen and reserve currencies to do well
There are some difficult days ahead as quarantines and lockdowns grow. I want to share something with you from John Stuart Mill as we head into the unknown.
Guide to Alternatives
Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected just a few days ago?
A lot of data is being made available on the coronavirus, but most of it requires careful analysis before drawing conclusions.