For much of this year, the global economy’s weak spot has been the manufacturing sector but in recent months this weakness appears to have broadened out to the services sector.
Our 2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs) present our forecasts for economic growth, inflation and asset returns over the next 10 to 15 years.
This weekly update provides a snapshot of changes in the economy and markets and their implications for investors.
Core bond yields have pushed higher since the end of October. Is the move warranted by a shift in the fundamental picture, and where could we go from here?
Today the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee met, and voted by a majority of 7-2 to keep the policy interest rate at 0.75%.
A summary of the factors driving global markets over the last month.
The UK population are returning to the polls, in a bid to resolve the Brexit impasse. Abundant uncertainties about the election result argue against significant positioning in sterling assets in either direction.
Valuations for high quality credit may seem slightly stretched in the context of outperformance so far this year, but with various catalysts ahead, we believe the asset class will remain in favour.
As an increasing number of high yield corporates run into trouble we question whether the rise in corporate distress is a signal for more caution, or if lower rated credits now look more attractive at improved valuations.
We emerged with a cautious near-term view from our latest quarterly strategy meeting in early September. In our base case scenario, the global economy is expected to narrowly avoid recession and continue to grow, albeit much more slowly.