Our fixed income focus page looks at the two-sided nature of the risk to government bond yields. The left-hand chart plots the "term premium" in US Treasuries, which is a measure of the extra compensation that investors require for the risk associated with owning longer dated government bonds. If the term premium was to rise closer to long-term average levels, this would imply upward pressure on bond yields ahead. The right-hand chart looks at scenarios for the returns from US Treasuries depending on the level of bond yields at the end of 2022 and 2023.