Themes and implications from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Investment Quarterly
While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree���which we deem moderate���of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding
Our view over the past few quarters has been that EURUSD should be rangebound, as the cyclical outperformance of the US economy is offset by the eurozone���s relatively better balance of payments position.
The performance of the US dollar significantly diverged from relative rate spreads.
How hedging against rising rates with credit���rather than sovereign bonds���can offer a better trade-off between liability-relative risk and return.
The contribution of fiscal policy to global growth is poised to rise, what does this mean for our global economic outlook and portfolio positioning?
This full report is a comprehensive and detailed analysis of our 10-to 15 year asset class forecasts. US version.