While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding
Cyclically lower, structurally unchanged
LTCMA 2019 Theme: Smaller cycles in a trend: The growing stability of the global economy.
LTCMA 2019 Theme: Surviving the short term to thrive in the long term. Building investor resilience in a downturn.
LTCMA 2019 Theme: Will debt be a drag?
Developed market governments aren’t tackling high public debt levels, dating back to the global financial crisis. Will high debt to GDP lead to political pressure on central banks to keep rates low?
Recessions are milder and less frequent, while recoveries are weaker. The business cycle has not been eliminated, but perhaps it has been tamed.
Managing illiquidity risk across public and private markets
Is your portfolio fit to clear late-cycle hurdles? We consider plausible recession scenarios and how they might challenge different types of investors to survive the short term so they can thrive in the long term.
A broad overview of our 2019 assumptions