While no deal is not the most likely scenario in our view, the risks are rising. The UK outlook is binary. A Brexit deal could see sterling bounce to 1.40 against the dollar, but no deal on 31 October could see a further slump to 1.10.
Predicting recessions is not easy and we do not claim to have uncovered a perfect crystal ball. What we have developed is a framework for tracking the risks, and potential magnitude, of a downturn in the US economy.
US Economy Health Check chart book
Discover the latest reactions from global markets to the US China trade war. Tariff hikes and escalated tensions prove concerning for global expansion.
Themes and implications from the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Investment Quarterly meeting
Traditional macroeconomic models run the risk of overstating potential global growth by not adequately accounting for natural resource constraints and climate change.
A systematic back-test of MSCI ESG ratings
We expect continued solid returns for emerging market debt (EMD) over the next six to 12 months, driven by healthy fundamentals, a supportive net issuance level and attractive valuations.