J.P. Morgan 2019 LTCMA Volatility Assumptions
While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree���which we deem moderate���of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding
LTCMA 2019 Theme: Smaller cycles in a trend: The growing stability of the global economy.
LTCMA 2019 Theme: Surviving the short term to thrive in the long term. Building investor resilience in a downturn.
LTCMA 2019 Theme: The evolution of market structure. Managing illiquidity risk across public and private markets.
Recessions are milder and less frequent, while recoveries are weaker. The business cycle has not been eliminated, but perhaps it has been tamed.
Developed market governments aren���t tackling high public debt levels, dating back to the global financial crisis. Will high debt to GDP lead to political pressure on central banks to keep rates low?
A broad overview of our 2019 assumptions
Managing illiquidity risk across public and private markets
Optimism faded following an agreement in principle for a “phase one” trade deal between the U.S. and China as details of the agreement underwhelmed market participants.