Last night a series of votes took place in the UK House of Commons. The purpose of the votes was to establish a potential way forward for the Brexit negotiations that could command the support of a majority of members of Parliament (MPs).
While no deal is not the most likely scenario in our view, the risks are rising. The UK outlook is binary. A Brexit deal could see sterling bounce to 1.40 against the dollar, but no deal on 31 October could see a further slump to 1.10.
THE INVESTMENT OUTLOOK FOR 2019: MID-YEAR UPDATE
Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a useful indicator of recessions. However, quantitative easing may have distorted that signal.
Emerging market equities are inherently volatile. But investors shouldn’t be deterred. If investors have a long time horizon, the emerging markets are expected to pay returns well in excess of developed market equities.
Like summers, economic expansions do not last forever. The US recovery is now the second longest on record. There is nothing to suggest it will end in the near future, so the broad prognosis for risk assets remains good. But we know that—like weather fore