We cut the chances of recession to 25% after a thaw in the trade war and a year of rate cuts; our forecast is for sub trend growth. Favored sectors include emerging market local currency debt and higher rated short-duration securitized credit.
While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding
Dovish central bank policy over 2019 pushed yields lower in fixed income markets, reigniting the hunt for yield.
Reaching for yield, which we define as buying bonds with wider spreads after controlling for sector and rating impacts, is a topic that frequently arises in the life insurance industry.
Implications for insurance capital requirements
Key findings from the Multi-Asset Solutions Strategy Summit
This paper examines the U.S. commercial mortgage loan (CML) market and U.S. insurers’ investments in CMLs.