In our first post of the “Insurers and COVID-19” series, we analyzes the public equity portfolios of P&C insurers during this turbulent time.
We raised the probability of Recession to 55% after virus-induced shocks, oil prices’ collapse and violent market volatility. We are de-risking, adding very high quality duration, while expecting credit markets to cheapen and reserve currencies to do well
In this paper, we assess the potential risks associated with such a strategy by stressing capital requirements using spread-implied ratings.
Reaching for yield, which we define as buying bonds with wider spreads after controlling for sector and rating impacts, is a topic that frequently arises in the life insurance industry.
While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding