Man: Welcome to the Center for Investment Excellence, a production of JP Morgan Asset Management. The Center for Investment Excellence is an audio podcast that provides educational insights across asset classes and investment themes.

Karen Roberton: Welcome to everybody. Thank you for joining us today on this call. My name is Karen Roberton and I'm joining you from London. I'm the Global Head of Consultant Sales here at JP Morgan Asset Management. So, thank you very much for dialing in today for what I hope is going to be a very interesting conversation and topic. 

So, let me first start by introducing you to my colleagues. So, we have Anurag Agarwal from our global transportation team, Nick Moller, from our global infrastructure team, and Nicola Rawlinson, who's representing our global macro team. Thank you all for joining me.

The focus of our presentation today is to answer some of those questions that we hear from clients like yourselves. How can investors achieve ESG alignment and diversification without compromising returns? We will be discussing how investment in liquid and illiquid alternatives can also satisfy a requirement to consider ESG. So with that, let's get started. 

Nicola, given that yours and other macro funds are tactical, in their very nature, how do you marry that with a long term sustainable approach?

Nicola Rawlinson: Yes. That’s a great starting point and question. So, when it comes to macro investing, it's not often associated with sustainability, because they do tend to be more tactical, more short-term and have high use of derivatives in how you invest. However, with our macro approach, we have integrated ESG inside decision making, and later on we can talk about a sustainable version of what we do that we've also launched.

So, starting with how we insert ESG and think about sustainability, across all of our macro portfolios, really, it’s from two angles. So, from the top down, macro perspective, and then bottom up. So, top down there are some sustainable ESG (singles) that you can invest in such as, for example, the response that we're seeing to climate change. 

And if you look at the current disclosure project assumptions on opportunities in this area, they've calculated kind of business opportunities at $2.1 trillion in the coming years. We're seeing a lot of focus on the current state agenda from governments (to) regulation, from companies and how they're adapting their strategies, and a lot of practical consumers. 

There's a macro investor that's creating disruption that we can then take advantage of. So, for example, when it comes to investing in power generation, there are a lot of opportunities there. When it comes to investing in transport, we can guess that investments in rail or in electric vehicles. When it comes to anything about greenhouse gas emissions more broadly this creates opportunities in energy efficiency.

So a lot of opportunities for macro investor being created by sustainable trade. That’s kind of from, you know, like we are investing in businesses that have that overall angle that focus on sustainability. There also can be subcomponents in areas that we can invest in, which might have a sustainable credential to them.

For example, a semiconductor manufacturer that's making chips for electric vehicles, or a healthcare company that's focused on capping certain drug prices to increase accessibility, payment companies focused on financial mobility. So, a lot of sustainable trends that you can look for across the wide spectrum of investments. 

Thinking about it from the bottom-up, we think about this in three ways. So our starting point for all single line securities pre-investment is to look at the ESG scores using third party providers, and they also focus on building out our own capability at JP Morgan. We then do our own fundamental analysis to assess any material ESG issues for particular investments that you might be looking at, and then can integrate with that as a third, effective, active ownership. 

So, where we engage with certain companies actually using that interaction to help to determine our decision making as to whether or not we think that a company has particular ESG risk or presents particularly ESG opportunities. 

Karen Roberton: Thanks, Nicola. Nick let's deal with one of the biggest questions I think we get from clients and consultants. So help me and the audience understand how investing in infrastructure assets, which may include airports, utility companies can still have an ESG profile.

Nick Moller: Yeah, thanks very much, Karen and thanks, everyone for the time today. So look, there occasionally could be some skepticism, but the reality is ESG is inherent in what we do in private infrastructure through all facets. So, if we think about these assets, it really starts with governance. These are private assets. You need control to implement, frankly, any policy, whether ES or just your business strategy in general.

From the E perspective, I know people are very familiar with renewables, the energy transition, etc., but it's far more than that. It's if there's a hurricane like is happening today, what's your resiliency for keeping the power on? Can you keep the quality of the water high? 

From a social perspective, with private infrastructure, a lot of people talk about political risks. Having good relationships with your customers, communities, your regulators, is all inherent in both reducing risk and optimizing return. So to come back to a couple of your examples, when it comes to utilities clearly, the energy transition, the build out of renewables is a strong opportunity, but so is the electricity grid to support the build out of renewables.

What happens when the sun doesn't shine, and the wind doesn't blow? We're still going to need fossil fuels off the natural gas, because it's the less carbon intensive alternative. And then, from things like an airport side, I'm not going to talk about the moving infrastructure that's all around, but from an airport, it's a lot like real estate. At the end of the day, it's a building, how can you sustainably and optimally use energy and just be more efficient? 

So, the punchline here is it's not black and white, it's not either or, this is integral to how people achieve returns within this asset class.

Karen Roberton: Thanks, Nick. Anurag let's take this discussion to the next level and talk about transportation. So airplanes, container ships, land vehicles, trucks, can you explain where ESG fits in within transportation for the audience?

Anurag Agarwal: Sure, Karen and good morning to everyone here. Well look, you know, I will be the first to admit that transportation may be the biggest elephant in the room when it comes to the conversation around the ESG, particularly the environmental aspect of it. So maybe we can start off with just looking at some higher level facts in terms of the role that the industry plays in terms of global emissions, and then we can look at some of the direct impact that the assets have themselves.

So, this is data that comes from the IEA, the International Environmental Agency and if you look at all the industries and their contribution to global emissions, at number one, we have energy production, and that is about 31%. 

At number two, you have agriculture and deforestation, which includes actually the meat processing industry, which is at a 26%. So the number one and two contributors are a total of 57%. Now, at number three, you do have transportation, but certainly it's not the bronze medal anyone wants, but we are at number three with 19%. 

And I think it's important to break down that 19% to further understand the implications on a sector by sector basis within transportation. So, if you deconstruct the 19%, 70%, and I know you mentioned trucks and land vehicles, 70% of all the emissions that actually are contributed from transportation come from land based vehicles. 

So, it's not just the trucks that move the cargo, but it's all of us that drive the cars. So, I would submit that the growing population and the consumer demand for land vehicles, is also a contributor to that problem. Aviation comes in next at 11%, of the 19% and maritime which is shipping globally comes down to 10% of that 19%. 

So what does this mean in terms of global numbers? Shipping, which actually moves 90% of the world's cargoes contributes 2% of the world's emissions. Aviation, which moves eight billion people, to the extent we travel all over the world, contributes 3% of the world's emissions. So, the way we approach this is to say that, at the end of the day, transportation is a critical part of facilitating global trade.

We have very well established patterns of global trade today, where people in the Western world, for example, are consuming goods that oftentimes are made in Asia and Asia consumes a lot of energy and energy related commodities, food, grains, etc., the travel from the other side of the planet and all of this is facilitated by transportation, so that's one lens that you put on it.

The other is, within the sector itself, we are guided by a very significant role that regulation and innovation plays in the asset selection process. So, I think when you think about what kind of strategies you may be looking at, what kind of assets you may be investing in, I think it behooves you to look at firstly, what is the regulatory environment that governs? 

Now, thankfully, this is a global industry, and we are governed by a global set of regulations that come in the case of shipping, for example, from the International Maritime Organization, a UN body. So, all commercial assets that are operating today have to be compliant, this is not an option, and they have very high standards around emissions and they're doing a lot more work to further reduce emissions. 

And on the other hand, the age of the assets matters a lot because the younger assets today have the most fuel efficiency, they are the most well designed from a eco and a fuel consumption point of view and then that then allows you to invest in ESG, as well.

So, I do think that there are very clear guidelines and frameworks. But the big point here is that it's only 2% for shipping global emissions, 3% for aviation. 

Karen Roberton: Thanks Anurag. We're going to pivot to the current environment and I'm going to use probably one of the most overused phrases from all of us at the moment, which is that we're living through very challenging times, both personally for many of us, but also as investors. A lot of our clients are seeing a number of the asset classes that they hold in their portfolios or looking to invest in are being impacted by the Covid-19 virus. 

What sort of challenges and this is to base Anurag and (Nick) if you don’t mind? What challenges are you seeing in both Transportation and Infrastructure?

Nick Moller: Sure, maybe I'll take that and then let Anurag follow up. And I would say at a high level, if we're focused on core private infrastructure, long term contract is regulated essential asset. It's done very well, by definition, these were the things we needed, whether at home or at work. It's the more commodity sensitive oil price, volumetrically sensitive assets that have had a challenge. 

But if I also put it through the lens of ESG, that doesn't mean they haven't been challenges to deal with, even within more traditional core infrastructure. So if I could think of some examples, one is safety. The reality is to keep the lights on and the water flowing, many of these employees never went home. They were on the front line, the entirety of COVID, they obviously needed to be protected with various sources, personal protection equipment. So, that's something we have to think about a lot. 

From a customer's perspective, maybe less so now, but earlier in COVID, obviously, there's a lot of uncertainty, would people be able to pay their bills, they're in lockdown, I don't have a job. So, one thing a lot of utilities did was essentially say, no customer disconnections and by the way, that's exactly what regulators want. 

So you might think, well, you need customers to pay, that's true. But long term, what you need is a good regulatory relationship and a customer relationship, so that went hand in hand. 

And then the other one, maybe less thought about that very critical in our space, is fiber with critical infrastructure needs to be protected. And with a lot of people now at home, arguably, cyber risks were higher. So even if economically, things were going pretty well, for many core assets, there was ESG lenses on a lot of the risks that we were having to deal with during COVID.

Karen Roberton: Anurag, your thoughts? 

Anurag Agarwal: So, you know, there is a lot of similarity in what Nick mentioned here that have also been true for what we've seen in transportation sector. But I think fundamentally, there has been a lot of discussion about the impact of the pandemic, and all the volatility that the market has seen from a demand point of view of consumer goods on the transportation assets and the performance of competition related strategies. 

I think what we have to do here is we have to first establish the two bookends of how one normally would access the transportation space as an investment. And I think therein lies really the understanding of what area of transportation has had the most impact. 

So simply put, we have two ways one typically accesses the transportation space. The first is what we call opportunistic assets, or the more private equity style of investing, where the typical investment thesis is that you buy assets, when we believe that there is asset value appreciation, base return on the offer, and you typically trade those assets in what we call the spot markets. Now, this is important, because, by definition, the stock markets are no more than 12 months of employment duration. 

Now, if you had an asset that is facing the market, as we call it, within 12 months, three months, six months, sometimes a month, then clearly market volatility, like the type we’ve seen in 2020 is bound to affect you. So, there is no question that the short duration side of the market, which is the opportunistic side of the market, has been impacted by the pandemic.

However, when you move over to the other bookend, where you are actually investing more with a core or core plus approach, you really are investing in assets that are critical to the supply chain of large global corporations and what you're trying to do there is you're trying to build predictable income streams by getting as long of a duration as possible. 

And typically, in those strategies, you tend to see durations, on the lower side, the minimum duration of five years, it could be as long as 15 or 20 years when the asset has an average useful life for 25 years. So as you can imagine, in those cases, the impact of a pandemic in one particular year is not felt as much because to the extent all the answers are employees, you're at that point in time taking credit risk in the counterparty as opposed to actually facing the market in terms of its market impact. 

So, it's extremely important. I think, going back to understanding what you're investing in, and to the extent it is opportunistic, you will have a lot more impact the extended core and core plus, you should look at the explosion from a credit point of view, because that then governs the extent of the impact. 

And then finally, you always have to look at the subsectors. So again, there's no hiding behind the fact that aviation in our business is the one sector that has been impacted the most. We thought we were getting actually, some good news in the last few months, as we saw a lot of airlines come back in operations, but the increased risk of the second wave and a third wave globally, has put a lot more pressure on the sector.

There's been over 50 different chapter 11 filings globally, so we think that the best estimates are where we will go back to 2019 level seems to be early 2022, so we are cautiously watching that space. But then the shipping sector, on the other hand, has done extremely well and it's all to do with what Nick said.

These are assets that move essential causes and to the extent that eight billion people are still being at home, they've been consuming commodities, food grains, non-discretionary consumer products, and year-to-date, globally, we are seeing volumes at 95% levels of where they were in 2019. So again, we've seen different behavior, depending on the assets, the appetites, and the sectors, but it really comes down to what is your investment thesis for investment and returns. 

Karen Roberton: Clearly, it's an asset class that has a very human impact. Nicola, let's again, let's move on to technology. Many would describe ESG as simply an investment decision, but do you think managers need to up the ante with their technology capabilities? Can you maybe talk to us about how advancements in technology can improve clients’ portfolios or client outcomes?

Nicola Rawlinson: Yes, of course. So, I think there’s kind of two perspectives I would take on this. One is to be with the data sources that manages the drawing on to make their decisions. So, they're often good policy providers that we can draw on at JP Morgan, but we're also looking at building out our own scoring that draws on a really varied range of data.

You know, for example, rather than just looking at a company's reporting on greenhouse gas emissions, there are companies now where they actually have the technology to calculate the emissions by looking at satellite imagery of clouds coming out the factories. 

You also have the accessibility of information from willing companies from the work industry provided Glassdoor. So, I think that kind of data driven, and technology advancement is really helpful in understanding ESG in more detail than actually delivering an ESG sustainable portfolio. 

I think there's a lot that we've certainly done within our sustainable strategy to be able to manage it and ensure that we aren't investing in activities or industries that might be similar but less sustainable. So for example, sort of having screens in place, through having the capability to look through the underlying indices and set the futures for understanding our derivative allocations whether or not we're investing in some of those less sustainable industries and actually reducing that exposure. 

Also monitoring our portfolios from the perspective of overall ESGs to ensure that we are better than our comparative universe when it comes to ESG scoring. So all of that analysis we’ve actually built out through technology that we have on our portfolio risk management system called Spectrum. I think the other that’s really important in helping us understand ESG issues in more detail and then in continuing to deliver a sustainable portfolio where we really know what we’re investing in even in areas, like, (unintelligible) not just physical assets.

Karen Roberton: Thanks Nicola. Nick it’s front to mind for everybody, risk. How do you think about risk in ESG from the infrastructure perspective?

Nick Moller: Yes clearly it’s heavily involved and some of the comments I’ve made especially around COVID were about risk reduction. So it’s certainly inherent. But I think I almost want to turn this question on the head given some of the focus. And it’s much about return enhancement. They go hand in hand. 

So to give some examples the energy transition gets used a lot. I people are very familiar with the renewable’s opportunity and that is absolutely true. What people think less about is the associated opportunity in building out the electricity to support renewables because they’re often in remote places. What happens when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow? Currently less carbon intensive fossil fuel, such natural gas generation are also an opportunity to complement that. 

On a more utility front there’s things, like, efficiency, encouraging less water usage but also making that an incentive. Many other businesses it’s all about burn and burn and burn. Here’s an example of where you want to incent less usage because that’s better for everyone from an ESG perspective. Some folks are looking at renewable natural gas when it comes to utilities. These are all things that can be earnt on the rate base if your regulator approves.

Terminals’ businesses. A number of looking them and this is where it sort of segue ways a little bit to Anurag’s (unintelligible). Terminals that provide fuels that are less carbon intensive than before. You might think well it’s still carbon. Yes, absolutely. But if we think about this journey we’re all on and (Mike Semblis) has done some great work on this, the energy transition will take time. Fossil fuels are going to be with us for a long time. It’s about how we transition to be more carbon efficient or less carbon intensive.

If I could just summarize I think one of the key themes and this goes back to Nicola a little bit but challenge is being measurement and benchmarking. I think this is not just a public/private thing. It’s for all of us. We were very interested to see the big four accounting firms come out with standards. That’s going to start to bring it a little bit to the public markets. That’s something we think about a lot. How do we systematically report and show investors and clients how we’re improving.

So that’s a long way of saying yes it is about risk. It’s about return as well and this is just inherent. This is about positive engagement not exclusionary policies and this is just something we’re going to be living on both sides of the equation moving forward.

Karen Roberton: So is the ESG a risk-(oriented) opportunity for transportation? How do you see it? Anurag, back to you. 

Anurag Agarwal: Yes, thanks Karen. Well look and I’m going after all of the comments that Nick just made. It’s absolutely an opportunity for us. And the reason for that is I think transportation is a leading industry in terms of we follow where the trends of global trade are. We follow the trends of where our end users and the stakeholders of the industry want to go in terms of their own ESG orientation and objectives.

So, you know, when you think about where we are today. We are absolutely in the midst of a paradigm shift from conventional fossil and fuel-based energy to natural gas and alternative and renewable space energy. 

And to some of the points Nick made. For example to the extent utilities that are owned by infrastructure strategies are migrating from cold-based power generation to natural gas-based power generation, that natural gas has to be moved. And we are the people that move it. So if they want it we deliver it. It’s sort of our mantra. So there’s certainly a huge opportunity that we’re seeing in the context of this migration when it comes to natural gas. 

The other interesting aspect about natural gas given that it’s a global sort of commodity is most of it exists up here in North America where there’s the shale or the (unintelligible) up in Canada or in Australia. But all the consumption of the demand at the moment seems to be coming out of Asia.

So in our business the longer the distance the commodity has to travel, the more opportunity and the more demand there is for it. And if you further look into the actual fleet of LNG carriers in the world there is only about 600 LNG carriers roughly operating today. Almost 78% of that fleet which is old generation ships, old diesel fuel run engines. So there’s only really a 22 to 23% existing fleet of energy carriers which costs approximately $200 million each that actually meet the new tests of being forward, next generation assets. 

We think that’s an incredible opportunity because in our estimate there is a need for anywhere between 150 to 250 new LNG carriers in the next five to seven years. So that’s how we deconstruct the broader macro into the micro of where the opportunity may lie. 

Another huge theme that they’re focused on is renewables. So while the conventional sort of understanding of renewables has always been wind and solar, one of the big themes and we’ve seen this now in Europe which is a leader in the renewables space as we know is that the windfarms are moving offshore. And they’re not just moving offshore. But they’re moving 30 to 50 miles away from the coastlines. And once that happens what you start seeing is the need for a very specialized type of asset which is in our case called the windfarm service and operating vessel which services a windfarm. And as we know windfarms can have a 25 to 30-year life profile as a project. 

So incredible opportunities. We think that the world is moving in that direction. We know that all our stakeholders want it, the investors want it, the consumers want it, the end users want it. And our job then becomes to really make good decisions as investment managers to invest into these opportunities as opposed to not investing in them which then may create risk. So we see that as an opportunity because we believe that you can invest into these opportunities. 

Karen Roberton: I was just going to ask you both just a very quick question – you mentioned windfarms. We see a lot of coverage in the press about how you get rid of windfarms after their life expectancy. Any comments on that? It seems to be the subject matter at the moment. 

Nick Moller: That’s a good question because I would think to me this goes into the I want to say misconception. It’s, like, sometimes people think of ESG as black or white. Either you’re doing renewables or you’re not. I think the reality is to your point whether it’s solar panels, wind turbines, there’s still elements that go into constructing those. And we shouldn’t forget that. 

So I think the punchline for me is this really hides the question. But it’s not black or white. This is going to be a transition. There’s going to be multiple elements of reducing carbon intensity. And to your point we’re going to have to get more efficient in how we make solar panels and make wind turbines. 

The one that comes up often is well we can just fuel batteries. We don’t need to fossil fuels. And it’s, like, well what’s in a battery. So I think your point is a good one. This is not black or white. This is their transition. And that’s really the message I would have from our side is too often people say I’m here or there or sort of polar opposites I guess I should say. The reality is this is inherent and it’s going to be a journey and ESG is here to stay.

Anurag Agarwal: I’ll just add to that Nick and say that in our case what we tend to do is look transportation has its own machines. And these machines have a finite use for life. Oftentimes these machines or these assets get underwritten for, you know, approximately a 25-year use for life profile.

One of the big positive developments from an ESG point of view as the industry has completely embraced and adopted is in the way these assets are scrapped. So what we do is at the end of their use for life we scrap these assets because there’s a lot of metal in them and they’re sold for their weight in steel. So sustainable scrapping is absolutely now the gold standard of how assets will be phased out. Now it’s a little early in the cycle to see assets being scrapped but even the older assets, the older generation assets that are now scrapped. 

And just from a different perspective for everyone here on the call, roughly 4 to 5% of the world assets get scrapped every single year in the transportation space. That is a lot of ships and planes. And we’ve all seen in this year of the pandemic we’ve seen accelerated scraping. So we’ve seen the airlines for example retire. Fleets of older aircrafts that were, you know, they weren’t 25 years. They were 18 and 20 years in some cases. So we heard that news from Delta, from KLM, from a lot of the larger players as well. 

So sustainable scrapping is a very important aspect. And I think it’s something that can be diligence. It’s something that investors who care about ESG should ask about.

And then finally I'm going to go back to this idea that look it's all about where the end users are in terms of their own objectives. So I'll take the name of a few companies that I think are incredibly well positioned and, to be honest, in some cases these were the culprits of the past but we believe that they are in the best position to be the heroes of the future when it comes to ESG.

So when you think about (Armdale Louis), the German utility in Europe, today they're a leader in the renewable space. If you think about Royal Dutch Shell, we actually can mention a publicly announced partnership we have with them to build some of the world's most eco assets in the chemical tank or in the LNG space. (Rio Tinto) and BSB (unintelligible), Australian miners, actually put out ESG scores and I think these are the kind of examples where the stakeholders of the industry at large are leading the way and we absolutely are following and have to follow.

Karen Roberton: Before we close today, just to give Anurag, Nicola and Nick the opportunity to I guess maybe give some takeaway for the audience something that hopefully they can take away and would like to resonate with them. Anurag, why don't you go first?

Anurag Agarwal: Sure. Thanks, Karen. So again, thank you everyone for your time this morning. I think for me the big takeaway is in terms of how transportation is positioned from an ESG point of view is one that this is no longer an option, this is no longer something that we can look at as a nice to have. I think it's a must have. I think it's a must have for the industry, it's a must have for all the stakeholders and it's absolutely an opportunity. 

The second thing I will say is that you really have to sort of peel the onion back to look at exactly what you are investing in. So if I were to sort of look at this from an investor's point of view, I think it goes back to all the framework I'd mentioned about earlier, core versus opportunistic, looking at what sector you're investing in, asset selection, the policies that are being put into place to take advantage of the trends and themes that are here to stay.

You know, I think in terms of -- we have a North American audience mostly today -- and I will say that it's coming to this side of the Atlantic a little bit later than it's normally been around in the rest of the world. And because of the fact that the industry is truly global, a lot of the changes and adoptions have already happened. So I think it's just a matter of a little more education and a little more diligence but certainly it's something that we are excited about as something that is going to be good for everyone going ahead.

Karen Roberton: Thanks, Anurag. Nicola? 

Nicola Rawlinson: Yes. Thanks. I think maybe closing remarks would be that, you know, we opened up by saying that macro and sustainable don't often go together and I'd say we have really tried to address that by saying actually we can deliver a macro strategy with a sustainable perspective and when you're macro investing you’re not necessarily just a short-term tactical owner. You know, we're investing in some long-term secular trends like the current change (unintelligible) talks about that present opportunities to hold companies for a long enough period of time to really try and be more of active owner. 

We haven't talked as much about some of the other asset classes but we also do apply ESG considerations to bond investments and I also made reference to how we should think about derivatives from a more sustainable perspective by really looking under the hoods and being aware, you know, at the risk it might give us too much exposure to assets that may be less sustainable, then that might be one that we avoid. So I think there are ways that the macro investor - that we can deliver sustainable solutions to clients and then enable them to build a broader sustainable portfolio that has that liquid alt element within it.

Karen Roberton: And finally Nick?

Nick Moller: Thanks very much, Karen. I think I probably belabored the case that ESG is inherent in the asset class so maybe what I'd conclude by saying is don't forget about the S and the G. There's a lot of attention on the E and rightfully so but it really - in private asset classes it starts with control and governance. That is threshold to be able to implement the E and the S. And then don't forget the power of S. These are local assets in local jurisdictions. 

Sometimes the S can feel a little bit squishy to people. This is tangible. Customers, regulators, this is inherent. So think about it holistically but also don't think about it from a black or white perspective. This is just inherent to every infrastructure asset no matter what type of asset it is. 

Karen Roberton: Thanks to all three of you.

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