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IN BRIEF

  • This year’s edition of our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions contains few significant changes to projected real GDP growth and inflation in major economies. The main themes from recent years’ forecasts remain in place.
  • Real growth will run at a modest pace by long-term historical standards, with aging populations representing the most important source of slowing relative to the past.
  • The U.S. will continue to record somewhat stronger growth than the euro area, UK, or Japan.
  • As a group, emerging market economies will grow faster than their developed market counterparts. India will lead the way in emerging market growth as China gradually slows.
  • Middle-of-the-road inflation, generally fairly close to central bank targets, will prevail in the long run.
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Our 2018 assumptions anticipate lower real GDP growth globally, a narrower DM-EM growth gap and generally stable inflation

MACROECONOMICS ASSUMPTIONS (%)
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Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; estimates as of September 30, 2017.
 

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Examine our return projections by major asset class, their building blocks and the thinking behind the numbers.
 
 
ABOUT LONG-TERM CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS

Our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions are part of a deeply researched proprietary process that draws on in-depth quantitative and qualitative inputs from experts across J.P.Morgan Asset Management. We, and many of our clients, rely on the output as a foundation for multi-asset class investing.

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