This page looks at government bond yields and expected inflation. The chart on the left includes the historical 10-year government bond yields of Germany, Japan and the U.S. The 10-year bond yield is a popular benchmark and its movement can suggest possible changes in the investing environment, for example through shifts in what is happening policy-wise or in the economy. On the right are inflation expectations from the market based on swap rates. In recent months, inflation expectations have been trending upwards as the economic recovery, tight labor market, geopolitical tensions and supply chains push up prices. This usually leads to bond yields creeping upwards as higher prices imply higher interest rates in the future, as central banks raise rates to combat inflation. In the first quarter of 2023, expectations appear to have begun coming down, which could suggest a shift in central bank policy soon.